Siena poll: Cuomo still has a big lead

cuomo and paladinoThe Siena poll out this morning reports that Andrew Cuomo leads Carl Paladino 57-24 in the race for governor (margin of error +/- 3.5). And Rick Lazio registers at... eight.

So, that's quite a different result from yesterday's Quinnipiac poll that reported Cuomo was ahead by just six points. And a Survey USA poll also out yesterday reported Cuomo was ahead by nine points.

There are a few differences between the Siena poll and the other two. First, Siena included Rick Lazio and the others did not. And the Siena poll surveyed registered voters, while the others surveyed "likely" voters.

Polling data uber-nerd Nate Silver examined the likely voter issue after Wendnesday's surprising Q Poll result. Likely voter models tend to favor Republicans a bit. But after talking with people at Quinnipiac, Silver concluded it probably doesn't explain Paladino's surge in the poll.

So... who knows where things are at right now. There are still 40 days before Election Day, which is plenty of time for the situation to change. Let's hope for a debate or two. Or at least a more interesting exchange between the candidates than a Photoshop competition.

A few other bits from the Siena poll

+ Chuck Schumer leads Jay Townsend 64-30.

+ Kirsten Gillibrand leads Joe DioGuardi 57-31 (though, that Survey USA poll only had her up 45-44)

+ No one knows who's running for attorney general. Both candidates -- Eric Schneiderman and Dan Donovan -- have don't know/no opinion scores over 60. The same thing goes for the comptroller matchup between Tom DiNapoli and Harry Wilson.

Comments

I think likely voters is a more accurate representation, especially in an off year.

I glanced at the headline and totally misread it as "Siena poll: Cuomo still has a big head". That made me then glance over at his picture and think "Really? His head looks perfectly normal! Do they mean it in the figurative sense?". Then I started wondering why Siena would even conduct a poll like that, unless they were trying to be rude. And the only reason why they'd be rude to Cuomo is if they were trying to help Paladino! Then I re-read the headline correctly and everything shifted back into reality. And WOW I really need to lie down after that crazy roller costar ride.

Say Something!

We'd really like you to take part in the conversation here at All Over Albany. But we do have a few rules here. Don't worry, they're easy. The first: be kind. The second: treat everyone else with the same respect you'd like to see in return. Cool? Great, post away. Comments are moderated so it might take a little while for your comment to show up. Thanks for being patient.

The Scoop

Ever wish you had a smart, savvy friend with the inside line on what's happening around the Capital Region? You know, the kind of stuff that makes your life just a little bit better? Yeah, we do, too. That's why we created All Over Albany. Find out more.

Recently on All Over Albany

The week ahead

Here are a few things to keep in mind, look forward to, or keep busy with this week, from the weather (summerish), to craft beer,... (more)

This week was brought to you by

This week was brought to you by the popsicles, swimming pools and the waning days of summer. It was also brought to you by Honest... (more)

A quick recap of the week

Here are a few highlights from the past summer week on AOA: + Video and a collection of tweets and pics from the Wellington annex... (more)

Stuff to do this weekend

Yes, we have a few more weeks of official summer, but unofficially, folks, this is it. Pretty soon the swimming pools and ice cream stands... (more)

Mr. Harris

Over at the Times Union there's a really nice profile of longtime Washington Tavern bartender Mark Harris -- Mr. Harris -- by Steve Barnes. Harris... (more)

Recent Comments

Designers are doing "safe" designs because they really have no other choice considering all the whiners, budget and construction concerns.

Pulled Pork Sandwich from Stockyard Bar-B-Q

...has 5 comments, most recently from Tristan

Drawing: Joshua Bell with the ASO + Yono's

...has 88 comments, most recently from Matt M

What's a recent building that you like?

...has 36 comments, most recently from Greg

Recommendations for hardwood floor refinishing?

...has 6 comments, most recently from Andrea Daley

The Gallery on Holland

...has 9 comments, most recently from daleyplanit