Top Senator final prediction: murky

caroline kennedy

What are her chances? It depends on who's guessing.

The full US Senate is expected to confirm Hillary Clinton next week for Secretary of State, which means David Paterson will probably announce her replacement shortly thereafter.

So who's the best bet to get the job? Well, it appears the (conventional) wisdom of crowds points toward... well, it points a couple of directions.

A Quinnipiac poll of New York voters out this week reports that 38 percent of respondents said Paterson will pick Caroline Kennedy (that's down from 48 percent a month ago) -- 33 percent said he wouldn't and 29 percent said they didn't know (though, really, isn't that all of us). So maybe things aren't looking so great for Caroline.

intrade Kennedy chart

But, the picture's a lot different over at Intrade, a prediction market. Its contract for Caroline getting the Senate seat is currently trading at 70 -- which is to say, the "crowd" there thinks Kennedy has a 70 percent chance of getting the seat.

If you think the traders have it wrong, you can buy contracts for Cuomo at just 24 right now. (Alas, there's no Gillibrand contract).

By the way: who do people think should get the seat? A Marist poll out this week reported that 40 percent of respondents said Andrew Cuomo should get it (Kennedy got the thumbs up from 25 percent.)

photo: Flickr user diggersf

Comments

Eliot Spitzer. He knows NY, and has proven he can get things done in D.C.

(Caroline got a thumbs up from 25%) Does that mean that Caroline Kennedy got a thumbs down from 75% of those polled? Or do you take the 40% who thumbed up Andrew and add those to the 25% who thumbed up Caroline and then extrapolate that to mean that 35% of those polled thumbed down both of them... which is still more than the 25% who thumbed up Caroline... oh I have a head ache.. What does it matter.... we have an accidental governor who is going to pick the person whom will give him the most in return... Thumbs up to Governor for lining his political pocket with what ever it is he gets... - donations - votes - power - access - big federal job later on... we will see in the future what he gets... thumbs down to the entire tainted lot of accidental politicians and political wan a bees...

Say Something!

We'd really like you to take part in the conversation here at All Over Albany. But we do have a few rules here. Don't worry, they're easy. The first: be kind. The second: treat everyone else with the same respect you'd like to see in return. Cool? Great, post away. Comments are moderated so it might take a little while for your comment to show up. Thanks for being patient.

The Scoop

Ever wish you had a smart, savvy friend with the inside line on what's happening around the Capital Region? You know, the kind of stuff that makes your life just a little bit better? Yeah, we do, too. That's why we created All Over Albany. Find out more.

Recently on All Over Albany

The week ahead

Here are a few things to keep in mind, look forward to, or keep busy with this week, from the weather (good), to a new... (more)

This week was brought to you by

This week was brought to you by new plans, old routes and the places in between. It was also brought to you by AOA advertisers... (more)

A quick recap of the week

Here are a few highlights from the past week on AOA: + Hey, look, it's a new in-between places place: Waterford. + M. asked about... (more)

Parking spot dog park

We took a few minutes Friday afternoon to check out some of the displays for Park(ing) Day in Albany (as mentioned), an event that temporarily... (more)

Night of the Walking Red in "Ginger City, USA"

The League of Extraordinary Red Heads will once again stage its Night of the Walking Red October 1 at Brown's Brewing Co. in Troy. Organizer... (more)

Recent Comments

... I was impressed w/ All Day She Plays and actually bought a dress - during lunch - in Albany. Haven't walked out of my office building during lunch and bought a dress since I lived in NYC.

Help with kitchen renovation design?

...has 8 comments, most recently from Elisabeth

Night of the Walking Red in "Ginger City, USA"

...has 2 comments, most recently from CAOD

The latest One Monument Square plan evolves

...has 11 comments, most recently from Cmaxby

Stuff to do this weekend

...has 3 comments, most recently from Dan Roesser

A good painter?

...has 15 comments, most recently from Michelle