The full US Senate is expected to confirm Hillary Clinton next week for Secretary of State, which means David Paterson will probably announce her replacement shortly thereafter.
So who's the best bet to get the job? Well, it appears the (conventional) wisdom of crowds points toward... well, it points a couple of directions.
A Quinnipiac poll of New York voters out this week reports that 38 percent of respondents said Paterson will pick Caroline Kennedy (that's down from 48 percent a month ago) -- 33 percent said he wouldn't and 29 percent said they didn't know (though, really, isn't that all of us). So maybe things aren't looking so great for Caroline.
But, the picture's a lot different over at Intrade, a prediction market. Its contract for Caroline getting the Senate seat is currently trading at 70 -- which is to say, the "crowd" there thinks Kennedy has a 70 percent chance of getting the seat.
If you think the traders have it wrong, you can buy contracts for Cuomo at just 24 right now. (Alas, there's no Gillibrand contract).
By the way: who do people think should get the seat? A Marist poll out this week reported that 40 percent of respondents said Andrew Cuomo should get it (Kennedy got the thumbs up from 25 percent.)
photo: Flickr user diggersf
We'd really like you to take part in the conversation here at All Over Albany. But we do have a few rules here. Don't worry, they're easy. The first: be kind. The second: treat everyone else with the same respect you'd like to see in return. Cool? Great, post away. Comments are moderated so it might take a little while for your comment to show up. Thanks for being patient.