Top Senator final prediction: murky

caroline kennedy

What are her chances? It depends on who's guessing.

The full US Senate is expected to confirm Hillary Clinton next week for Secretary of State, which means David Paterson will probably announce her replacement shortly thereafter.

So who's the best bet to get the job? Well, it appears the (conventional) wisdom of crowds points toward... well, it points a couple of directions.

A Quinnipiac poll of New York voters out this week reports that 38 percent of respondents said Paterson will pick Caroline Kennedy (that's down from 48 percent a month ago) -- 33 percent said he wouldn't and 29 percent said they didn't know (though, really, isn't that all of us). So maybe things aren't looking so great for Caroline.

intrade Kennedy chart

But, the picture's a lot different over at Intrade, a prediction market. Its contract for Caroline getting the Senate seat is currently trading at 70 -- which is to say, the "crowd" there thinks Kennedy has a 70 percent chance of getting the seat.

If you think the traders have it wrong, you can buy contracts for Cuomo at just 24 right now. (Alas, there's no Gillibrand contract).

By the way: who do people think should get the seat? A Marist poll out this week reported that 40 percent of respondents said Andrew Cuomo should get it (Kennedy got the thumbs up from 25 percent.)

photo: Flickr user diggersf


Eliot Spitzer. He knows NY, and has proven he can get things done in D.C.

(Caroline got a thumbs up from 25%) Does that mean that Caroline Kennedy got a thumbs down from 75% of those polled? Or do you take the 40% who thumbed up Andrew and add those to the 25% who thumbed up Caroline and then extrapolate that to mean that 35% of those polled thumbed down both of them... which is still more than the 25% who thumbed up Caroline... oh I have a head ache.. What does it matter.... we have an accidental governor who is going to pick the person whom will give him the most in return... Thumbs up to Governor for lining his political pocket with what ever it is he gets... - donations - votes - power - access - big federal job later on... we will see in the future what he gets... thumbs down to the entire tainted lot of accidental politicians and political wan a bees...

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