Top Senator final prediction: murky

caroline kennedy

What are her chances? It depends on who's guessing.

The full US Senate is expected to confirm Hillary Clinton next week for Secretary of State, which means David Paterson will probably announce her replacement shortly thereafter.

So who's the best bet to get the job? Well, it appears the (conventional) wisdom of crowds points toward... well, it points a couple of directions.

A Quinnipiac poll of New York voters out this week reports that 38 percent of respondents said Paterson will pick Caroline Kennedy (that's down from 48 percent a month ago) -- 33 percent said he wouldn't and 29 percent said they didn't know (though, really, isn't that all of us). So maybe things aren't looking so great for Caroline.

intrade Kennedy chart

But, the picture's a lot different over at Intrade, a prediction market. Its contract for Caroline getting the Senate seat is currently trading at 70 -- which is to say, the "crowd" there thinks Kennedy has a 70 percent chance of getting the seat.

If you think the traders have it wrong, you can buy contracts for Cuomo at just 24 right now. (Alas, there's no Gillibrand contract).

By the way: who do people think should get the seat? A Marist poll out this week reported that 40 percent of respondents said Andrew Cuomo should get it (Kennedy got the thumbs up from 25 percent.)

photo: Flickr user diggersf

Comments

Eliot Spitzer. He knows NY, and has proven he can get things done in D.C.

(Caroline got a thumbs up from 25%) Does that mean that Caroline Kennedy got a thumbs down from 75% of those polled? Or do you take the 40% who thumbed up Andrew and add those to the 25% who thumbed up Caroline and then extrapolate that to mean that 35% of those polled thumbed down both of them... which is still more than the 25% who thumbed up Caroline... oh I have a head ache.. What does it matter.... we have an accidental governor who is going to pick the person whom will give him the most in return... Thumbs up to Governor for lining his political pocket with what ever it is he gets... - donations - votes - power - access - big federal job later on... we will see in the future what he gets... thumbs down to the entire tainted lot of accidental politicians and political wan a bees...

Say Something!

We'd really like you to take part in the conversation here at All Over Albany. But we do have a few rules here. Don't worry, they're easy. The first: be kind. The second: treat everyone else with the same respect you'd like to see in return. Cool? Great, post away. Comments are moderated so it might take a little while for your comment to show up. Thanks for being patient.

What's All Over Albany?

All Over Albany is for interested and interesting people in New York's Capital Region. In other words, it's for you. It's kind of like having a smart, savvy friend who can help you find out what's up. Oh, and our friends call us AOA.

Search

Recently on All Over Albany

The Capital Region's home ownership rate ticked upward last year for the first time in a while

Another few bits for the apartments / rents discussion... The home ownership rate in the Albany-Schenectady-Troy metro area ticked upward for the first time since... (more)

Stuff to do this weekend

Welcome to summer. Have a lemonade and some freshly-picked stuff to do. There's baseball, strawberries, jazz, wine ... all kinds of fun things to make... (more)

Dog poop is a universal issue

One of the bits from this Ian Bogost article about the topics that frequently pop up on Nextdoor: The dog-pop-in-other-people's-trash-cans issue is everywhere and all... (more)

No. No. No. No. No. No. No.

Tucked in at the end of a state Department of Environmental Conservation digest of agency police officer encounters -- titled "Strange Rattle in the Engine... (more)

Here's the design of that Henry Johnson commemorative medallion

Here's that how that coin-shaped medallion to honor Henry Johnson turned out. It will debut at a free event at The Palace June 27 at... (more)

Recent Comments

Troy has way more parking downtown than any other city I visit. There are 3 parking garages downtown and 2 are within 1000ft of Monument Square. There are public surface lots nearby. Outside the downtown core there is tons of street parking with few to no restrictions. It is unrealistic to expect cities to have parking directly in front of your destination like the suburbs. That's WHY they're different classifications.

No. No. No. No. No. No. No.

...has 2 comments, most recently from Ellen

Albany City Hall carillon concerts

...has 1 comment, most recently from Tim

Where to take foreign language classes

...has 6 comments, most recently from BrĂ­d

Five takeaways from the start of the fifth major effort to redevelop 1 Monument Square

...has 9 comments, most recently from RedBarron

Morning Blend for Jun 20

...has 1 comment, most recently from ace