Top Senator final prediction: murky

caroline kennedy

What are her chances? It depends on who's guessing.

The full US Senate is expected to confirm Hillary Clinton next week for Secretary of State, which means David Paterson will probably announce her replacement shortly thereafter.

So who's the best bet to get the job? Well, it appears the (conventional) wisdom of crowds points toward... well, it points a couple of directions.

A Quinnipiac poll of New York voters out this week reports that 38 percent of respondents said Paterson will pick Caroline Kennedy (that's down from 48 percent a month ago) -- 33 percent said he wouldn't and 29 percent said they didn't know (though, really, isn't that all of us). So maybe things aren't looking so great for Caroline.

intrade Kennedy chart

But, the picture's a lot different over at Intrade, a prediction market. Its contract for Caroline getting the Senate seat is currently trading at 70 -- which is to say, the "crowd" there thinks Kennedy has a 70 percent chance of getting the seat.

If you think the traders have it wrong, you can buy contracts for Cuomo at just 24 right now. (Alas, there's no Gillibrand contract).

By the way: who do people think should get the seat? A Marist poll out this week reported that 40 percent of respondents said Andrew Cuomo should get it (Kennedy got the thumbs up from 25 percent.)

photo: Flickr user diggersf

Comments

Eliot Spitzer. He knows NY, and has proven he can get things done in D.C.

(Caroline got a thumbs up from 25%) Does that mean that Caroline Kennedy got a thumbs down from 75% of those polled? Or do you take the 40% who thumbed up Andrew and add those to the 25% who thumbed up Caroline and then extrapolate that to mean that 35% of those polled thumbed down both of them... which is still more than the 25% who thumbed up Caroline... oh I have a head ache.. What does it matter.... we have an accidental governor who is going to pick the person whom will give him the most in return... Thumbs up to Governor for lining his political pocket with what ever it is he gets... - donations - votes - power - access - big federal job later on... we will see in the future what he gets... thumbs down to the entire tainted lot of accidental politicians and political wan a bees...

Say Something!

We'd really like you to take part in the conversation here at All Over Albany. But we do have a few rules here. Don't worry, they're easy. The first: be kind. The second: treat everyone else with the same respect you'd like to see in return. Cool? Great, post away. Comments are moderated so it might take a little while for your comment to show up. Thanks for being patient.

The Scoop

Ever wish you had a smart, savvy friend with the inside line on what's happening around the Capital Region? You know, the kind of stuff that makes your life just a little bit better? Yeah, we do, too. That's why we created All Over Albany. Find out more.

Recently on All Over Albany

Today's moment of summer

Bzzzzzz.... (more)

Living in the "unhappy" belt

Are you happy living here? Would you be happier if you lived somewhere else? The Albany area ranks #142 out of 318 metro areas in... (more)

So, it's not really tiny films?

The Cuomo admin announced Wednesday that a film production company based at Central New York Hub for Emerging Nano Industries ("the new nano film hub"... (more)

What's up in the Neighborhood

Among the topics in this most recent spin around the Capital Region's online neighborhood: riding through the night, the Johns Brook Lodge, the Catskills, a... (more)

Rensselaerville Festival of Writers 2014

The annual Rensselaerville Festival of Writers returns August 15-17 in (surprise) Rensselaerville. Among the lineup of authors for this year's festival: Elisa Albert, Shin Yu... (more)

Recent Comments

... It's heartening to see that the neighborhood is seeing early stages of revival - I think a lot of cities are starting to realize the potential and charm of historic warehouse and factory buildings. I'm sort of conflicted because although I want to see them all saved, I like the sort of gritty time-worn quality of peeling paint, dirty brick, and faded signage...

Cherry Plain State Park

...has 8 comments, most recently from Carl

What's up in the Neighborhood

...has 2 comments, most recently from Carl

Albany's oldest buildings

...has 2 comments, most recently from Peter leue

Remembering Friday nights in Troy

...has 9 comments, most recently from Nicole

Morning Blend for Jul 30

...has 1 comment, most recently from Chris