What are Siena's chances?
Woof!
Siena plays the Ohio State in the first round of the NCAA basketball tournament Friday night (around 9:40 pm, though probably later).
The Buckeyes and the Saints are seeded #8 and #9 respectively in their bracket. Theoretically, 8/9 games are the most evenly matched games of the first round.
So what are Siena's chances of winning? It depends on how you look at it.
The stats
According to the rankings compiled by compiled by college basketball uber-nerd Ken Pomeroy, Ohio State is the clear favorite in this game. He has the Buckeyes at #39 in his rankings and the Saints at #68. Here's an explanation of how Pomeroy puts his ratings together, but the short story is that they're based on a team records and how efficiently teams are at scoring and stopping the other team from scoring.
Basketball Prospectus, the central clearing house for basketball stat nerds, has posted probabilities for team's advancing in each round. It has the Saints' chances of winning in the first round pegged at 37.18 percent.
The fouls
Another way of looking at which team is likely to come out ahead is to analyze how often they foul/get fouled. The theory is that a team that with a the best foul differential will have an advantage. From this perspective, Siena should come out on top. In fact, if you don't discount unlikely upsets, Siena would make it to the Final Four using this formula.
The crowd
Stats, schmats. What do actual people think? We can find out by looking the pick distribution in all the brackets filled out for Yahoo's Tournament Pick'em game. And it seems the crowd is not optimistic about Siena's chances -- only 36 percent brackets have the Saints picked to win in the first round. This could be skewed a bit by the fact that OSU has zillions of alumni and they're probably disproportionately picking the Buckeyes.
The experts
OK, but what about the people who supposedly know what they're talking about? Sports Illustrated has posted the brackets from its experts -- and four out of five picked the Saints to win.
Vegas
The sports books, which have a significant uh, interest, in all this have Ohio State listed as a 3.5 point favorite.
The Bottom Line
The experts and foul stats say Siena will come out on top. But the stat nerds, crowd, and Vegas say the Buckeyes will win.
Say Something!
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Comments
Nice!
go BUCKS!!
... said MattW on Mar 19, 2009 at 4:42 PM | link
What are the odds, if broadcasters reference Albany, they mispronounce it? 2:1?
... said Barold on Mar 19, 2009 at 5:41 PM | link
Based on comments... Id say most AOA readers don't care if Siena wins or not!! See in Columbus, there are actual fans! Clearly Siena has no chance at winning at what is basically a home game for OSU.
Oh Well, at least you tried to raise some interest.
Good work,
Go bucks!
... said MattW on Mar 20, 2009 at 6:39 AM | link
I'm interested! And so is the CDTA- I saw a #3 bus with GO SAINTS on it. I'm totally rooting for them and I really think they have a chance. They are a solid team and unlike other colleges' players, will graduate with a college degree. That in itself is reason to cheer them on. I am confident they will totally win!
GOOOOO SAINTS!!!
... said Katherine on Mar 20, 2009 at 12:51 PM | link
Katherine,
actually graduate?? are trying to be elitist? OSU and many other institutions are actually giving educations too, is that too hard to believe. I have taught many >3.5 gpa GRADUATING students.
http://oncampus.osu.edu/article.php?id=1481
Go Bucks!
... said MattW on Mar 20, 2009 at 8:33 PM | link
MattW was wrong! Good game!
... said Lucy on Mar 21, 2009 at 10:10 AM | link
Siena's chances of winning are 100% BABY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Bring on Louisville!!!!!!!!
... said Dave on Mar 21, 2009 at 10:43 AM | link
Holy crap!!! What a game last night! My voice is raw from screaming. Wow.
... said Summer on Mar 21, 2009 at 12:05 PM | link
Great Game!! good job Siena!
... said MattW on Mar 21, 2009 at 1:17 PM | link