Cuomo vs. Paladino -- stop the landslide?

cuomo and paladino

For what seems like forever now, the conventional wisdom has been that Andrew Cuomo will cruise to an easy win in the race for governor. And the poll data backed up this view.

Until now. (With a caveat.)

A Quinnipiac poll out today of likely voters reports that Cuomo leads Carl Paladino by just 6 points, 49-43 (margin of error 3.6). And Paladino leads Cuomo among independents, 49-43.

These results are quite a contrast to other poll results. A Rasmussen poll out earlier this week reported Cuomo was up 54-38. And in mid-August, the Siena poll reported that Cuomo was ahead of both Lazio and Paladino by more than 30 points in hypothetical matchups.

It's not surprising that Paladino has gotten a bump after all the attention from winning the Republican primary -- there were people who probably didn't know, or only vaguely knew, who he was before that.

But here's the caveat to today's Q poll: it doesn't include Rick Lazio (nor did the Rasmussen poll). And, so far at least, Lazio is still in the race on the Conservative Party line. And if he stays in, you gotta think he's going to draw votes that would otherwise go to Paladino.

Political stat nerd Nate Silver tweeted today that leaving Lazio out of the poll was "pretty clearly wrong." As of yesterday, Silver's model was forecasting Cuomo had an almost 97 percent chance of winning the governorship. But the model has its own caveats -- among them, it was based on the mid-August Siena poll.

So take all these numbers with a grain or two of salt. There are 41 more days until Election Day.

Cuomo photo: Cuomo campaign Facebook | Paladino photo: Paladino campaign Facebook

Comments

To AOA:Please conduct a poll on this question.

Who would you rather drink a beer with?
A. Cuomo B. Paladino

The results to such a webpoll would be worthy of press release.

One take-away from this poll, which surveyed “likely voters,” seems to be that Cuomo’s success will hinge on Democrats turning out at the polls on November 2.

I would be surprised if Lazio stays in the race, even for a weasel like him he's got to understand that he should step aside.

These polls rarely include so-called "third party" candidates. I think what we're seeing here is a backlash to the attitude that Cuomo will and should win in a landslide no matter his views or policies on anything.
If these polls included information about Howie Hawkins, for example, I would bet he would "take away votes" from Palladino (though according to Democrats Green party candidates only "take votes" from their candidates).

There are some pretty insightful comments on the 538 entry about this, with detail on exactly why Lazio being on the ballot as the Conservative Party candidate is important. I highly suggest anyone interested read it; unlike most political blogs, the comments there are really solid. Kind of like AOA, but a little less witty.

As I see it, for all the noise being made in the upstate region of the state, Palladino has to convince voters in Westchester, Nassau, Suffolk and Erie counties that he's a viable candidate and worth voting for.

The other issue to consider is that the election is six weeks away. That's a long time. And in the days and weeks ahead we will see what colorful language and proposals come from him.

In any event, Nelson Rockefeller is likely spinning in his grave...

neither of them should be governor because something is not right with them

Say Something!

We'd really like you to take part in the conversation here at All Over Albany. But we do have a few rules here. Don't worry, they're easy. The first: be kind. The second: treat everyone else with the same respect you'd like to see in return. Cool? Great, post away. Comments are moderated so it might take a little while for your comment to show up. Thanks for being patient.

The Scoop

Ever wish you had a smart, savvy friend with the inside line on what's happening around the Capital Region? You know, the kind of stuff that makes your life just a little bit better? Yeah, we do, too. That's why we created All Over Albany. Find out more.

Recently on All Over Albany

A quick recap of the week

Here are a few highlights from the past week on AOA: + County fair season has started -- here's a a big list of fairs... (more)

Tickets for Northshire Saratoga Jennifer Weiner event now on sale

Here are the updated details for the Northshire event with best-selling author Jennifer Weiner in Saratoga Springs October 16: Weiner will be appearing in conversation... (more)

A few bits about a planned new Albany Med building, new residential construction, and other projects around Albany

A new Albany Med building, new residential projects, and the demolition of a longtime Central Ave landmark -- they were all up before the Albany... (more)

Albany has now fulfilled its odd/unfortunate Pokemon Go story quota

Updated after APD released different details. According to THE INTERNET, every modern city must have some odd/unfortunate episode involving Pokeman Go. From an Albany Police... (more)

Stuff to do this weekend

Another midsummer weekend awaits. Horses, ballet, baseball, swimming pools -- and that's just the beginning. After the jump, our list of stuff to do this... (more)

Recent Comments

The Dutchess County Fair is definitely worth the drive. I may be a little biased because it's my hometown area, but I have yet to go to another fair that rivals it!

The first group of Park South redevelopment apartments are renting -- and there's a Chipotle going in there

...has 16 comments, most recently from Brainiac

New York State will soon exempt tampons from sales tax

...has 3 comments, most recently from Emily G

12 hours in Columbia County

...has 4 comments, most recently from Jennifer

Crash versus accident

...has 22 comments, most recently from Disappointed

About those fancy hats...

...has 2 comments, most recently from Deirdre