Cuomo vs. Paladino -- stop the landslide?

cuomo and paladino

For what seems like forever now, the conventional wisdom has been that Andrew Cuomo will cruise to an easy win in the race for governor. And the poll data backed up this view.

Until now. (With a caveat.)

A Quinnipiac poll out today of likely voters reports that Cuomo leads Carl Paladino by just 6 points, 49-43 (margin of error 3.6). And Paladino leads Cuomo among independents, 49-43.

These results are quite a contrast to other poll results. A Rasmussen poll out earlier this week reported Cuomo was up 54-38. And in mid-August, the Siena poll reported that Cuomo was ahead of both Lazio and Paladino by more than 30 points in hypothetical matchups.

It's not surprising that Paladino has gotten a bump after all the attention from winning the Republican primary -- there were people who probably didn't know, or only vaguely knew, who he was before that.

But here's the caveat to today's Q poll: it doesn't include Rick Lazio (nor did the Rasmussen poll). And, so far at least, Lazio is still in the race on the Conservative Party line. And if he stays in, you gotta think he's going to draw votes that would otherwise go to Paladino.

Political stat nerd Nate Silver tweeted today that leaving Lazio out of the poll was "pretty clearly wrong." As of yesterday, Silver's model was forecasting Cuomo had an almost 97 percent chance of winning the governorship. But the model has its own caveats -- among them, it was based on the mid-August Siena poll.

So take all these numbers with a grain or two of salt. There are 41 more days until Election Day.

Cuomo photo: Cuomo campaign Facebook | Paladino photo: Paladino campaign Facebook

Comments

To AOA:Please conduct a poll on this question.

Who would you rather drink a beer with?
A. Cuomo B. Paladino

The results to such a webpoll would be worthy of press release.

One take-away from this poll, which surveyed “likely voters,” seems to be that Cuomo’s success will hinge on Democrats turning out at the polls on November 2.

I would be surprised if Lazio stays in the race, even for a weasel like him he's got to understand that he should step aside.

These polls rarely include so-called "third party" candidates. I think what we're seeing here is a backlash to the attitude that Cuomo will and should win in a landslide no matter his views or policies on anything.
If these polls included information about Howie Hawkins, for example, I would bet he would "take away votes" from Palladino (though according to Democrats Green party candidates only "take votes" from their candidates).

There are some pretty insightful comments on the 538 entry about this, with detail on exactly why Lazio being on the ballot as the Conservative Party candidate is important. I highly suggest anyone interested read it; unlike most political blogs, the comments there are really solid. Kind of like AOA, but a little less witty.

As I see it, for all the noise being made in the upstate region of the state, Palladino has to convince voters in Westchester, Nassau, Suffolk and Erie counties that he's a viable candidate and worth voting for.

The other issue to consider is that the election is six weeks away. That's a long time. And in the days and weeks ahead we will see what colorful language and proposals come from him.

In any event, Nelson Rockefeller is likely spinning in his grave...

neither of them should be governor because something is not right with them

Say Something!

We'd really like you to take part in the conversation here at All Over Albany. But we do have a few rules here. Don't worry, they're easy. The first: be kind. The second: treat everyone else with the same respect you'd like to see in return. Cool? Great, post away. Comments are moderated so it might take a little while for your comment to show up. Thanks for being patient.

The Scoop

Ever wish you had a smart, savvy friend with the inside line on what's happening around the Capital Region? You know, the kind of stuff that makes your life just a little bit better? Yeah, we do, too. That's why we created All Over Albany. Find out more.

Recently on All Over Albany

This is why that blimp was over the Capital Region

@alloveralbany the other day I did, seen from crossgates pic.twitter.com/UlZosRFDSe— Mary Beth Frezon (@mbquilts) July 27, 2015 We heard from a handful of people Monday... (more)

That time it was 104 degrees in Albany

Because it's sure to come up this week as we approach of string of forecasted 90something-degree days: The highest daily temperature on record for the... (more)

"There is little precedent for an increase of this magnitude."

Over at NYT, Noam Scheiber has an interesting look at the some of the research regarding minimum wage increases and what it might say as... (more)

Oh, hey, another seal in the Hudson River

Speaking of unusual Hudson River creatures... the state Canal Corporation reported today that a seal -- yep, a seal -- made its way through the... (more)

Whatever is beyond luck

A person who placed a 50-cent Pick Five bet -- picking the winner of five consecutive races -- on Saturday races at the Saratoga Race... (more)

Recent Comments

... It's time for the working people in this country to rise up and fight against unmitigated greed and profit by corporations at the expense of PEOPLE. Every single person complaining about working people earning a living wage needs to take a serious look in the mirror and realize you are part of the problem. ...

New York State set to raise fast food minimum wage to $15 per hour

...has 20 comments, most recently from -B

For sale: caboose

...has 3 comments, most recently from Matthew

Bye, bye, Miss American Pie...

...has 4 comments, most recently from Bob A. Woodwind Dr Vville

Scheduled for arrival: BurgerFi

...has 11 comments, most recently from Nanci

BYOB restaurants in the Capital Region?

...has 17 comments, most recently from Ashley