Siena poll: Gibson now leads Murphy
The Siena poll out today reports that Chris Gibson now leads Scott Murphy 51-42 for the NY 20th Congressional District. Gibson also leads 49-42 among independents.
That's quite a swing from a little more than a month ago, when the Siena poll had Murphy up 54-37 (and up 58-30 among independents). Murphy has also lost what was a strong lead in the northern part of the district (he's from Glens Falls, Gibson is from Kinderhook). And his favorability rating has taken a dive -- it was 56-27 a month ago, now it's 45-45.
Interestingly, Barack Obama's favorabilty rating in the district has also fallen over the that time (51 then, 41 now) -- but Kirsten Gillibrand's has not.
The poll was conducted October 23-25 -- that's after last week's debate, in which Gibson came across as confident and likable. [WMHT video]
Bill Clinton is coming to Saratoga Springs Monday to campaign for Murphy. And you can bet both campaigns will be running a whole bunch of ads between now and election day. [Post-Star]
This poll was of "likely" voters and its margin of error was +/- 3.8.
Murphy photo via campaign site
Gibson photo via campaign Facebook page
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Comments
Remember that poll last month that showed Palidino within a few points of Cuomo? Polls shmolls.
... said Jackers on Oct 26, 2010 at 2:15 PM | link
I think Paladino probably was within a few points of Cuomo, then he went off the reservation and started talking crazy 24/7.
These Dem. incumbent districts with a republican enrollment advantage are just the type that shoudl switch hands in a big "wave election" like this.
Gibson winning shouldn't surprise anybody
... said Ike on Oct 26, 2010 at 4:28 PM | link
Is it me or does Chris Gibson look a little like "Balloon boy's" Dad?
... said Cheese on Oct 27, 2010 at 11:44 AM | link
Where the hell else is Bubba going to be besides Saratoga and Kentucky on Monday?
http://bluegrasspolitics.bloginky.com/2010/10/21/bill-clinton-will-campaign-for-jack-conway-on-eve-of-election/
It will be interesting to witness how fast the Secret Service comes in and then leaves the area. So probably Exits 2-13 (14-15?) on the Northway will be closed on Monday for Clinton?
... said Jeff S on Oct 27, 2010 at 1:15 PM | link
The general footprint of NY-20th is traditionally right-of-center (Gillibrand notwithstanding), elected John Sweeney to four terms (and Jerry Solomon to ten), and could flip. The Paladino poll data was never real, but Gibson has a good shot. My sense is that Gillibrand beat Sweeney with turn-out from south of Albany. Gibson is centered south, Murphy north, so Gibson will swing some votes that Murphy maybe needs. Demographically, Murphy may in fact be the underdog.
LQ
... said Lou Quillio on Oct 27, 2010 at 7:55 PM | link