Siena poll: Gibson now leads Murphy

murphy gibson ny20The Siena poll out today reports that Chris Gibson now leads Scott Murphy 51-42 for the NY 20th Congressional District. Gibson also leads 49-42 among independents.

That's quite a swing from a little more than a month ago, when the Siena poll had Murphy up 54-37 (and up 58-30 among independents). Murphy has also lost what was a strong lead in the northern part of the district (he's from Glens Falls, Gibson is from Kinderhook). And his favorability rating has taken a dive -- it was 56-27 a month ago, now it's 45-45.

Interestingly, Barack Obama's favorabilty rating in the district has also fallen over the that time (51 then, 41 now) -- but Kirsten Gillibrand's has not.

The poll was conducted October 23-25 -- that's after last week's debate, in which Gibson came across as confident and likable. [WMHT video]

Bill Clinton is coming to Saratoga Springs Monday to campaign for Murphy. And you can bet both campaigns will be running a whole bunch of ads between now and election day. [Post-Star]

This poll was of "likely" voters and its margin of error was +/- 3.8.

Murphy photo via campaign site
Gibson photo via campaign Facebook page

Comments

Remember that poll last month that showed Palidino within a few points of Cuomo? Polls shmolls.

I think Paladino probably was within a few points of Cuomo, then he went off the reservation and started talking crazy 24/7.

These Dem. incumbent districts with a republican enrollment advantage are just the type that shoudl switch hands in a big "wave election" like this.

Gibson winning shouldn't surprise anybody

Is it me or does Chris Gibson look a little like "Balloon boy's" Dad?

Where the hell else is Bubba going to be besides Saratoga and Kentucky on Monday?

http://bluegrasspolitics.bloginky.com/2010/10/21/bill-clinton-will-campaign-for-jack-conway-on-eve-of-election/

It will be interesting to witness how fast the Secret Service comes in and then leaves the area. So probably Exits 2-13 (14-15?) on the Northway will be closed on Monday for Clinton?

The general footprint of NY-20th is traditionally right-of-center (Gillibrand notwithstanding), elected John Sweeney to four terms (and Jerry Solomon to ten), and could flip. The Paladino poll data was never real, but Gibson has a good shot. My sense is that Gillibrand beat Sweeney with turn-out from south of Albany. Gibson is centered south, Murphy north, so Gibson will swing some votes that Murphy maybe needs. Demographically, Murphy may in fact be the underdog.

LQ

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