It's warm. No surprise.

albany temperatures winter 2011-2012 vs normals

In the past seven days, we've had record-high temperatures three times. In any other winter, it would probably seem weird. This (non)winter? As expected.

The graph above shows high and low temps this winter (dark blue) against the normals and records -- highs (red), average (green), lows (blue) record highs (red), normals (green), record lows (blue). It gives you a sense of just how warm -- and unusual -- this past winter has been.

The (paraphrased) forecast for the next few days, from the National Weather Service:

Friday: Rainy, highs around 60.
Saturday: Sunny, highs in the upper 60s.
Sunday: Sunny and 70 (which would be a record).

The normal high for this time of year: 44-45.

graph adapted from National Weather Service


This is all well and good (I've let go of the winter that never was, as a skier it just happens sometimes), but if this trend continues, we'll roast this summer.

Yes, all you Irish folk, soak up your vitamin D now because you may need to protect your fair skin with SPF 50 or a parasol in July and August.

I chose to vacation to the Bahamas this week. It has been raining and cold the whole time, why didn't I stay in Troy?

Another unpleasant side effect of this year's "heat wave" -- the deer ticks are already out in force. I've pulled several off the kids over the past few weeks and they have just been playing in the yard. I imagine leather-jacketed gangs of ticks are already skulking in the shadows of the Pine Bush.

And if you peek a bit further out, they're talking 90 on Wednesday (3/21), 84 on 3/22.. It's a bit out there, but wow.

This actually looks to me that this year is well within the normal range of variability for winters here.

Goes to show you not to believe anecdotal accounts or media sensationalism.

It's definitely been above-average, except for when it's been average or below normal. No doubt.

@bk: After seeing your comment, I went back and re-read the post. And in doing so, I realized that I had flubbed the explanation of the graph. Sorry about that. I edited the post to update the explanation, which will make it clearer that the temps this winter have been unusually warm.

And a quick chart:

Average temps: this year / normal / difference

November: 44.4 / 39.7 / +4.7
December: 34.0 / 28.5 / +5.5
January: 28.6 / 22.6 / +6.0
February: 32.1 / 25.9 / +6.2

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