If you somehow thought an enormous lead in campaign cash, as well as name recognition against an opponent most people know little or nothing about, wouldn't translate into a big lead for Kirsten Gillibrand in the race against Wendy Long for US Senate -- the Siena poll out today might persuade you otherwise. Also no surprise: Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 59-35 in New York. Five Thirty Eight's forecast includes a 100% probability that both Obama and KG will win in New York.
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