Icy, Snowy Apocalypse Watch

snowy apocalypse meter 2013-12-13

The Icy, Snowy Apocalypse Watch appears for its first significant action of the 2013-2014 season. That "event" a few weeks back was like a preseason warm-up against a Division II opponent from Directional State U. Now we're onto the real home opener. It's game time!

The paraphrased forecast:

Friday afternoon/night: Some flurries and snowglobing here and there. Cold. Lows near 10.
Saturday: Snow, increasing in likelihood as the day goes on. Maybe 2 inches. Again, really cold. Highs in the teens.
Saturday night: The storm settles in for some significant snow. Maybe another 6+ inches. Still cold, but temps stay in the teens
Sunday: Snow probably continues through the morning, tailing off through the day. Highs in the upper 20s.

This storm is moving in from the Midwest, so the Nor'easter will-it-or-won't-it track question is out.

The NWS has issued a winter storm watch and is projecting "moderate to significant amounts of snow." Saturday night could see snowfall rates of 2 inches per hour. So if everything lines up, we could see maybe 10 inches on the high end. The hype monkeys at the Weather Channel have the region pegged for 8-12 inches.

If the snow does fall in those amounts, we're guessing based on the temps that it will be dry snow -- and thus it'll be a light 10 inches.

Shovels at the ready, hardy Upstaters.

Media freakout forecast: Looking at the media freakout models, we're seeing two conflicting trends. On one side, this could be the first significant snowfall of the season, which trends toward higher freakout levels. On the other side, it's happening over the weekend. Bundle up Only Reporter on Duty for the Weekend! You're doing a live shot in the cold and snow, probably by Exit 24. Cold toes and diesel exhaust!

Necessary note: You should take this all with an enormous bag of rock salt. AOA has absolutely no weather forecasting expertise. At all. That said, the world will probably not end because of some snow. Most likely.

Comments

Tip your plowman- Christmas doesn't pay for itself and good beer isn't cheap.

"hype monkeys" - that's going into my repertoire

This is a fun part of the NOAA website to play with:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_percentiles.php?ftype=percentiles&fpd=48&ptype=snow

Basically, it will tell you the probability of a minimum amount of snowfall. So, the 10th percentile for greater than or equal to 6" of snow, actually means there is a 90% chance we'll get more than 6" of snow by 1pm (18Z) on Sunday. Get the skis out!

At least it's not on Monday morning...

Sounds like my snow tires might be getting a workout this weekend, or at least I'll feel justified in having them. :) Also... I need to fuel up the snowblower! =D

@AddiesDad: Thank you for sharing that! It's like the NWS web page that I didn't think I could hope for.

it's happening over the weekend

I would rather see it happening during the week. Weekends are MINE and I want to travel.

And... the hype monkeys win.

@Bob: I was thinking this weekend that for all the criticism weather forecasters get, this time they were right on the mark.

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