Icy, Snowy Apocalypse Watch (updated)

snowy apocalypse meter_2014-11-24

Updated Wednesday at 11 am.

And so it begins. The Icy, Snowy Apocalypse Watch makes its debut for the 2014-2015 season with everyone's favorite variety of icy, snowy apocalypse: A costal storm with great uncertainty -- ahead of holiday travel.

Which way will the storm track? Will there be two inches of snow or ten? Will Andrew Cuomo blame a weather forecaster? Drama without a script. Drama. Without a script.

The paraphrased forecast:

Wednesday: A winter storm warning has been declared. Snow starting late morning (oh, look, it has), could be heavy at times -- 1-2 inches an hour at times during the afternoon. Daytime accumulation of 4-8 inches possible.
Wednesday night: More snow, maybe another 3-5 inches.
Thanksgiving: Probably some more snow, trailing off in the morning. Mid 30s.
Thursday night:Cloudy, low of 22.
Friday: Sunny and 34.

Because this is a coastal storm, the track will make a huge difference as to what happens in the Capital Region. If it tracks farther out to sea, we could get a few inches. More to the west and mashed potatoes won't be the only thing people are shoveling.

Projections for snow totals in the Capital Region have increased since the beginning of the week. About 10 inches or more now looks like a good bet in the Capital Region core. Areas to the east/southeast/south will probably get more, areas to the the north/northwest/west. The probabilistic snowfall accumulation map is worth a look.

We're continuing to peg this as a "Winter's making a point" icy, snowy apocalypse.

Shovels at the ready, upstaters. There's turkey on the other side.

Media freakout forecast: HORN OF PLENTY. Major travel holiday + first icy, snowy apocalypse of the season = extra helpings of media freakout. (Pass the gravy.)

Necessary note: You should take this all with an enormous bag of rock salt. AOA has absolutely no weather forecasting expertise. At all. That said, the world will probably not end because of some snow. Most likely.

__________

Original ISAW.

And so it begins. The Icy, Snowy Apocalypse Watch makes its debut for the 2014-2015 season with everyone's favorite variety of icy, snowy apocalypse: A costal storm with great uncertainty -- ahead of holiday travel.

Which way will the storm track? Will there be two inches of snow or ten? Will Andrew Cuomo blame a weather forecaster? Drama without a script. Drama. Without a script.

The paraphrased forecast:

Tuesday: Sunny and 49. (Did that 70 degree Monday really happen?)
Wednesday: Snow starting in the early afternoon, could be heavy at times -- up to 3 inches of snow per hour. High 35.
Wednesday night: Snow continues.
Thanksgiving: Snow continues through the morning before tailing off before noon. Mid 30s.
Thursday night:Cloudy, low of 22.
Friday: Sunny and 33.

Because this is a coastal storm, the track will make a huge difference as to what happens in the Capital Region. If it tracks farther out to sea, we could get a few inches. More to the west and mashed potatoes won't be the only thing people are shoveling.

As of Monday afternoon, the probabilistic forecast map has Albany at about 75 percent of change of 4 or more inches of snow, a 50-50 chance for 8 or more inches of snow, and just about 20 percent for a foot or more. As is often the case with these storms that move up the coast, the gradient of snowfall probabilities is steep, again pointing out how important the storm track can be. (Also: there will probably be more snow to the east/southeast/south and less to the north/northwest/west.)

These situations are always tricky, but 8 inches of snow isn't a bad bet here. So we're going to peg this as a "Winter's making a point" icy, snowy apocalypse. (And in this case, the point that winter is making is: I'm back with a loosely aimed vengeance.)

Shovels at the ready, upstaters. There's turkey on the other side.

Media freakout forecast: HORN OF PLENTY. Major travel holiday + first icy, snowy apocalypse of the season = extra helpings of media freakout. (Pass the gravy.)

Necessary note: You should take this all with an enormous bag of rock salt. AOA has absolutely no weather forecasting expertise. At all. That said, the world will probably not end because of some snow. Most likely.

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