Icy, Snowy Apocalypse Watch

snowy apocalypse meter 2015-02-01

Early in the week. Predictions of a lot of snow. This all seems so familiar. It's icy, snowy apocalypse deja vu.

There is a winter storm warning in effect through Monday evening. The paraphrased forecast:

Sunday into Monday: Snow. Maybe 5 inches by morning.
Monday during the day: More heavy snow. Another 5-9 inches. Highs around 17.
Monday night: Snow slows, maybe another 1 inch. Cold -- temps around 0.
Tuesday: Sunny and 19.

The Capital Region is pegged for 10-14 inches of snow.

This isn't a coastal storm -- it's a huge blob (technical term) moving in from the west/southwest -- and those types of storms tend to be more predictable. The NWS Albany weather discussion calls this a "high confidence forecast." Another way to look at it is the NWS probabilistic snowfall map:

NWS probabilistic snowfall map 2015-02-01

The zone Albany is in has a 95 percent chance of getting at least 8 inches of snow, according to NWS projections. And the chances of a foot or more are 50-60 percent. So, yeah, the forecasters are feeling confident about this one.

Upside: Temps are cold, and that should mean light, fluffy snow.

So we're going to rate this a strong "winter's making a point" icy, snowy apocalypse. A foot of snow is a solid effort, and more than that is a strong showing. Between all the daytime snow and the cold temps, Monday will be a day for layering. And patience.

Shovels at the ready, hardy upstaters!

Media freakout forecast: Someone has a case of the Mondays.

Necessary note: You should take this all with an enormous bag of rock salt. AOA has absolutely no weather forecasting expertise. At all. That said, the world will probably not end because of some snow. Most likely.

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