The signs are pointing to, yes, there will be winter

cpc winter temperature outlook 2015-2016

A probability map for winter temperatures December-February, adapted from a NOAA Climate Prediction Center map.

Living now in the Period of Continuous Weather Hype, you've probably heard that this is a strong El Nino year (a band of warmer than typical water in the Pacific off the coast of South America). And that somehow this is important for the upcoming winter because it will mean things. Probably.

The federal Climate Prediction Center recently posted a broad outlook for the upcoming winter that takes into account this year's strong El Nino. The bottom line for here? A 40 percent chance of warmer than average temps, and we're right on the border of projected area with a more than than 33 percent chance of higher than average precipitation.

So, maybe this winter will be a bit warmer and wetter. Or it won't. As a blogger over at the site recently wrote, "[S]ometimes El Niño is the bartender who doesn't bring you what you ordered."

And, of course, there are all sort of other moving parts to the weather. A few Nor'easters could closely track up the coast and hit us with 12-inch snow storms, making it an atypically snowy year. Or they could track farther out to sea. Or warmer winter weather could mean more freezing rain instead of snow. Or it could mean heavy snow. Because weather.

If you're curious, we've pulled the seasonal snowfall totals for Albany in El Nino seasons dating back to the 1950s...

Albany seasonal snowfall in El Nino seasons

El Nino seasons are pulled from this site, and Albany snowfall totals are from the NWS Albany site.

Say Something!

We'd really like you to take part in the conversation here at All Over Albany. But we do have a few rules here. Don't worry, they're easy. The first: be kind. The second: treat everyone else with the same respect you'd like to see in return. Cool? Great, post away. Comments are moderated so it might take a little while for your comment to show up. Thanks for being patient.

What's All Over Albany?

All Over Albany is for interested and interesting people in New York's Capital Region. In other words, it's for you. It's kind of like having a smart, savvy friend who can help you find out what's up. Oh, and our friends call us AOA.


Recently on All Over Albany

The week ahead

Here are a few things to keep in mind, look forward to, or keep busy with this week, from the weather (chilly), to spooky tours,... (more)

Gawking at the new Schenectady train station

In a bit of a surprise the new Schenectady train station opened this past Wednesday, a few weeks ahead of the announced schedule. The $23... (more)

A little push up the hill

Wrapped into my update this past week about what it's been like to use a bike as one of my primary ways of getting around... (more)

A collection of castle day trips

This part of the country is dotted with castle-like structures, full of history, mystery, romance, and fairytale. Here's a handful of castles that are within... (more)

Classics of Science Fiction at The Linda

A multi-day get-together called Classics of Science Fiction will be at The Linda in Albany November 1-4. Blurbage: Guests include authors, artists, podcasters, cosplayers, business... (more)

Recent Comments

I ride every day to work, and also after work for exercise. I love the concept of being a person who happens to ride a bike. There's a level of bike riding, with the high performance gear and sleek clothing, that makes riding seem like its not for everyone. I try to avoid markers like that, and always wear regular clothing/shoes/backpack with dumpy-looking bike. One concession is bike gloves.

Gawking at the new Schenectady train station

...has 4 comments, most recently from Walter Clark

A collection of castle day trips

...has 1 comment, most recently from Jsc

A little push up the hill

...has 2 comments, most recently from Ryan H

Today's moment of mural

...has 3 comments, most recently from Rich

A year later I'm still using a bike to get around town -- here are a few thoughts about how that's worked out

...has 13 comments, most recently from Randal Putnam