The signs are pointing to, yes, there will be winter

cpc winter temperature outlook 2015-2016

A probability map for winter temperatures December-February, adapted from a NOAA Climate Prediction Center map.

Living now in the Period of Continuous Weather Hype, you've probably heard that this is a strong El Nino year (a band of warmer than typical water in the Pacific off the coast of South America). And that somehow this is important for the upcoming winter because it will mean things. Probably.

The federal Climate Prediction Center recently posted a broad outlook for the upcoming winter that takes into account this year's strong El Nino. The bottom line for here? A 40 percent chance of warmer than average temps, and we're right on the border of projected area with a more than than 33 percent chance of higher than average precipitation.

So, maybe this winter will be a bit warmer and wetter. Or it won't. As a blogger over at the site recently wrote, "[S]ometimes El Niño is the bartender who doesn't bring you what you ordered."

And, of course, there are all sort of other moving parts to the weather. A few Nor'easters could closely track up the coast and hit us with 12-inch snow storms, making it an atypically snowy year. Or they could track farther out to sea. Or warmer winter weather could mean more freezing rain instead of snow. Or it could mean heavy snow. Because weather.

If you're curious, we've pulled the seasonal snowfall totals for Albany in El Nino seasons dating back to the 1950s...

Albany seasonal snowfall in El Nino seasons

El Nino seasons are pulled from this site, and Albany snowfall totals are from the NWS Albany site.

Say Something!

We'd really like you to take part in the conversation here at All Over Albany. But we do have a few rules here. Don't worry, they're easy. The first: be kind. The second: treat everyone else with the same respect you'd like to see in return. Cool? Great, post away. Comments are moderated so it might take a little while for your comment to show up. Thanks for being patient.

What's All Over Albany?

All Over Albany is for interested and interesting people in New York's Capital Region. In other words, it's for you. It's kind of like having a smart, savvy friend who can help you find out what's up. Oh, and our friends call us AOA.


Recently on All Over Albany

Thank you!

When we started AOA a decade ago we had no idea what was going to happen. And it turned out better than we could have... (more)

Let's stay in touch

This all feels like the last day of camp or something. And we're going to miss you all so much. But we'd like to stay... (more)

A few things I think about this place

Working on AOA over the past decade has been a life-changing experience for me and it's shaped the way I think about so many things.... (more)

Albany tightened its rules for shoveling snowy sidewalks last winter -- so how'd that work out?

If winter ever gets its act together and drops more snow on us, there will be sidewalks to shovel. And shortly after that, Albany will... (more)

Tea with Jack McEneny

Last week we were fortunate enough to spend a few minutes with Jack McEneny -- former state Assemblyman, unofficial Albany historian, and genuinely nice guy.... (more)

Recent Comments

My three year old son absolutely loving riding the train around Huck Finn's (Hoffman's) Playland this summer.

Let's stay in touch

...has 4 comments, most recently from mg

A look inside 2 Judson Street

...has 3 comments, most recently from Diane (Agans) Boyle

Everything changes: Alicia Lea

...has 2 comments, most recently from Chaz Boyark

Thank you!

...has 24 comments, most recently from Erik

A few things I think about this place

...has 13 comments, most recently from Katherine