Icy, Snowy Apocalypse Watch

snowy apocalypse meter 2017-02-08

What's this? Another snow storm? Again? It's like winter might actually have some self respect and is deciding to get up and do something.

The National Weather Service has issued a winter weather advisory for this region starting at 2 am Thursday until 6 pm Thursday. The paraphrased forecast:

Wednesday night: Snow starts, mostly after midnight. Maybe a few inches. Lows in the mid 20s.
Thursday morning: Snow continues, another 2-4 inches. Could have some gusty wind. Highs in the mid 20s.
Thursday night: Snow tapers off in the evening. Lows around 10.
Friday: Some sun. A small chance of snow in the afternoon. Highs in the low 20s.

The winter weather advisory has the snow accumulations pegged at 3-7 inches for the Capital District. And as both the probabilistic snowfall maps and the forecast discussion indicate, a sharp snowfall total gradient is expected from south/southeast (more snow) to north/northwest (less snow). In fact, NWS has issued a winter storm warning for the Hudson Valley, Massachusetts, and Connecticut.

The machine for the snow is a coastal storm. And you know the deal with those things -- a small change in the track one way or the other can mean a big change in how much snow we get. And as you know, those notoriously tricky to forecast because small changes in track or other variables can make a big difference in what happens in here. That said, it sounds like this will probably be fluffy snow, so there might not be a big difference between 4 or 6 inches of snow when it comes to shoveling and whatnot.

The factor that could complicate things: timing. The forecast discussion mentions possible snowfall rates of 1-2 inches during the Thursday morning commute. Add in blowing snow because of the wind and that could make for slow going.

So we're going to rate this as a "that's something"-plus icy, snowy apocalypse. Four inches of fluffy snow wouldn't be much, but something on the upper end of the forecasted range -- 6 or 7 inches -- is a respectable effort. And it feels like winter needs some encouragement right now.

Shovels at the ready, hardy upstaters!

Media freakout forecast: Moderate to low. On one hand. there might actually be snow to shovel. On the other... CASINO. The national media might make a bigger deal out of it because of the potential impact on Boston, New York City, and Philadelphia.

Necessary note: You should take this all with an enormous bag of rock salt. AOA has absolutely no weather forecasting expertise. At all. That said, the world will probably not end because of some snow. Most likely.

The Scoop

For a decade All Over Albany was a place for interested and interesting people in New York's Capital Region. It was kind of like having a smart, savvy friend who could help you find out what's up. AOA stopped publishing at the end of 2018.

Recently on All Over Albany

Thank you!

When we started AOA a decade ago we had no idea what was going to happen. And it turned out better than we could have... (more)

Let's stay in touch

This all feels like the last day of camp or something. And we're going to miss you all so much. But we'd like to stay... (more)

A few things I think about this place

Working on AOA over the past decade has been a life-changing experience for me and it's shaped the way I think about so many things.... (more)

Albany tightened its rules for shoveling snowy sidewalks last winter -- so how'd that work out?

If winter ever gets its act together and drops more snow on us, there will be sidewalks to shovel. And shortly after that, Albany will... (more)

Tea with Jack McEneny

Last week we were fortunate enough to spend a few minutes with Jack McEneny -- former state Assemblyman, unofficial Albany historian, and genuinely nice guy.... (more)

Recent Comments

My three year old son absolutely loving riding the train around Huck Finn's (Hoffman's) Playland this summer.

Thank you!

...has 27 comments, most recently from Ashley

Let's stay in touch

...has 4 comments, most recently from mg

A look inside 2 Judson Street

...has 3 comments, most recently from Diane (Agans) Boyle

Everything changes: Alicia Lea

...has 2 comments, most recently from Chaz Boyark

A few things I think about this place

...has 13 comments, most recently from Katherine