All Over Albany

Another warm winter on the way?

This NOAA map depicts the probabilities that temperatures will be higher or lower than normal in parts of the country.

The weather/climate forecasters at NOAA predicting that the odds favor another relatively warm winter in this part of the country. From the annual winter outlook released Thursday:

Precipitation

Wetter-than-average conditions are favored across most of the northern United States, extending from the northern Rockies, to the eastern Great Lakes, the Ohio Valley, in Hawaii and in western and northern Alaska.

Drier-than-normal conditions are most likely across the entire southern U.S.

Temperature

Warmer-than-normal conditions are most likely across the southern two-thirds of the continental U.S., along the East Coast, across Hawaii and in western and northern Alaska.

Below-average temperatures are favored along the Northern Tier of the country from Minnesota to the Pacific Northwest and in southeastern Alaska.

The rest of the country falls into the equal chance category, which means they have an equal chance for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and/or precipitation because there is not a strong enough climate signal in these areas to shift the odds.

In this case, "warm" is relative to a typical winter. As one of NOAA's climate forecasters told the media today, they're not necessarily predicting another crazy-warm winter like the last two. [Washington Post]

Another thing that could affect things: La Nina might develop off the Pacific coast of South America, and its effects tend to blunt the snowstorms that move up the East Coast.

Though, as we saw last year, it just takes one storm.

Earlier: Yep, another weird winter