Icy, Snowy Apocalypse Watch (updated)

snowy apocalypse meter 2018-03-06 v2

Updated Wednesday at 8:30 am: After yesterday's upward revision on the snowfall totals, it looks like the bulk of the snowfall has now shifted to the afternoon, though the projections for total snowfall are about the same. But, you know, every icy, snowy apocalypse is like its own snowflake.

The Icy, Snowy Apocalypse Watch is having a deja vu moment.

The paraphrased forecast for the next few days:

Tuesday: Sunny. Mid 40s. La la la.
Tuesday night: Maybe snow starting after 11 pm. Lows in the upper 20s.
Wednesday: Snow. Snow. Snow. Maybe 3-7 inches. Mid 30s.
Wednesday night: Snow. Snow. Snow. Maybe another 3-7 inches. Lows around 30.
Thursday: Probably more snow in the morning, mid 30s.
Thursday night: Maybe more snow, lows in the upper 20s.
Friday: Maybe some snow, maybe rain. Mid 30s.

Unlike last week's storm, the forecasts for this week's Nor'easter are relatively confident there's going to be significant snow. In fact, the National Weather Service has already issued a winter storm warning from Wednesday morning to Thursday morning with "heavy snow expected."

Updated How much snow? Let us now turn to... wait for it... yes, it's THE PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL FORECAST MAPS. The "expected snowfall" for Albany is now 12-18 inches with more at higher elevations. And the window of outcomes in Albany appears to be not that big:
+ >= 6 inches: 89 percent
+ >= 8 inches: 80 percent
+ >= 12 inches: 53 percent
+ >= 18 inches: 5 percent

Of course, you know about coastal storms. A small change in track can make a big difference in how much snow we get. But it's looking like there's a pretty good chance of significant snow.

So we're marking this Icy, Snowy Apocalypse Watch very much into the "proper winter" category, and nearing the old-school snow storm level. It sounds like the snow could be more on the wet side (ick), and the storm could really be cranking during the Wednesday commute home. So, yeah, that should be... interesting.

Shovels at the ready, hardy upstaters.

Media freakout forecast: We are onto you, Nor'easter!

Necessary note: You should take this all with an enormous bag of rock salt. AOA has absolutely no weather forecasting expertise. At all. That said, the world will probably not end because of some snow. Most likely.

Earlier: Very well acquainted, too, with matters mathematical, they are the very model of a modern forecast meteorological


I swear, my first thought this morning was "What rating is this storm getting on the Icy, Snowy Apocalypse Watch?"

My second thought was "SNOW DAY!!!"

I had to visit to checkout the ISAM. Where I am now in coastal southern Maine, we're either going to get slammed or get a change-over to rain. All I can say for sure is we'll know on Thursday!

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