Siena poll: Cuomo still has a big lead
The Siena poll out this morning reports that Andrew Cuomo leads Carl Paladino 57-24 in the race for governor (margin of error +/- 3.5). And Rick Lazio registers at... eight.
So, that's quite a different result from yesterday's Quinnipiac poll that reported Cuomo was ahead by just six points. And a Survey USA poll also out yesterday reported Cuomo was ahead by nine points.
There are a few differences between the Siena poll and the other two. First, Siena included Rick Lazio and the others did not. And the Siena poll surveyed registered voters, while the others surveyed "likely" voters.
Polling data uber-nerd Nate Silver examined the likely voter issue after Wendnesday's surprising Q Poll result. Likely voter models tend to favor Republicans a bit. But after talking with people at Quinnipiac, Silver concluded it probably doesn't explain Paladino's surge in the poll.
So... who knows where things are at right now. There are still 40 days before Election Day, which is plenty of time for the situation to change. Let's hope for a debate or two. Or at least a more interesting exchange between the candidates than a Photoshop competition.
A few other bits from the Siena poll
+ Chuck Schumer leads Jay Townsend 64-30.
+ Kirsten Gillibrand leads Joe DioGuardi 57-31 (though, that Survey USA poll only had her up 45-44)
+ No one knows who's running for attorney general. Both candidates -- Eric Schneiderman and Dan Donovan -- have don't know/no opinion scores over 60. The same thing goes for the comptroller matchup between Tom DiNapoli and Harry Wilson.
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Comments
I think likely voters is a more accurate representation, especially in an off year.
... said ike on Sep 23, 2010 at 11:21 AM | link
I glanced at the headline and totally misread it as "Siena poll: Cuomo still has a big head". That made me then glance over at his picture and think "Really? His head looks perfectly normal! Do they mean it in the figurative sense?". Then I started wondering why Siena would even conduct a poll like that, unless they were trying to be rude. And the only reason why they'd be rude to Cuomo is if they were trying to help Paladino! Then I re-read the headline correctly and everything shifted back into reality. And WOW I really need to lie down after that crazy roller costar ride.
... said Arielle on Sep 23, 2010 at 5:17 PM | link