The cone of uncertainty

NHC Joaquin 5-day 2015-09-30

The National Hurricane Center's five-day track forecast "cone" for Joaquin, as of 2 pm on Wednesday.

We're still a way out from all this, but it's worth keeping an eye out: Hurricane Joaquin is currently spinning its way through the Caribbean and long-range forecasts have it headed for the mid and upper East Coast. The current potential track has it making landfall between North Carolina and Connecticut sometime on Sunday. We could potentially feel the effects here on Monday.

That said, things could change and/or the projections could be off. There still appears to be a lack of clear consensus among forecasters and the models they use about the track of the storm. [Weather Channel]

Of course, the big concern here is going to be rain. Even if the storm doesn't eventually track through upstate New York, it could still end up dumping many inches of rain. And as well all saw during Irene, 4+ inches of rain in a short period of time can have serious consequences in flood-prone areas.

The Cuomo admin is already asking people to make some initial preparations, just in case.

Here's the National Hurricane Center's page for Joaquin projections.

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