A peek at our possible future climate

climate explorer january rainfall map

A screengrab of the Climate Explorer map that allows you see projected rainfall change under two different emissions scenarios. This map is showing projected rainfall for the Northeast January in 2050. (The deeper the green, the larger the project rainfall increase from the 1960-1989 normal.)

We've had an unusually dry summer so far, and it's been somewhat hotter than usual, too. And while any one year isn't necessarily a sign of some broader trend, this summer is in some ways an example of what the future summers here might be like because of climate change.

We were thinking about that today while looking around the federal government's new Climate Explorer website. It takes projections based on climate change models and greenhouse gas emission scenarios and makes them easy to map and graph for locations around the country. For example: Here's the page for Albany County.

So, what sort of future are the models pointing toward for our area?

climate explorer albany cooling degrees projection
This is projection of cooling degree days (a measure of how many days are above 65 degrees and by how many degrees) for Albany County under two scenarios, if emissions stop rising (blue) and if they continue increasing as they have been.

Well, even under the scenario in which emissions stop increasing (which seems... unlikely), the model indicates the daily maximum average temperate will probably rise a few degrees between now and 2050. And while that might not seem like much, it could mean summers in which the average daily max temperature here is closer to 85 instead of the upper 70s (as is typical now) -- and winters with an average daily max temperature closer to 40 than 30.

Another interesting angle is precipitation. The model used by Climate Explorer projects this area will get more rainfall on average over the course of the year -- but in the form of wetter winters and possibly somewhat drier summers. There's also a projected rise in the number of days with rainfall above 1 inch.

Earlier on AOA: A future of more extremes

Say Something!

We'd really like you to take part in the conversation here at All Over Albany. But we do have a few rules here. Don't worry, they're easy. The first: be kind. The second: treat everyone else with the same respect you'd like to see in return. Cool? Great, post away. Comments are moderated so it might take a little while for your comment to show up. Thanks for being patient.

What's All Over Albany?

All Over Albany is for interested and interesting people in New York's Capital Region. In other words, it's for you. It's kind of like having a smart, savvy friend who can help you find out what's up. Oh, and our friends call us AOA.

Search

Recently on All Over Albany

The Kenmore Hotel and Steuben Club, uproar on Elm Street, and other exciting tales of the Albany Planning Board

Exciting Tales of the Albany Planning Board is a program recorded before a live studio audience once a month in which the fates of multi-million... (more)

Seeking foregiveness

This area has a lot of public employees, so we suspect this will be of interest: You know that federal program that was supposed to... (more)

Fall foliage maps 2018

Fall officially starts Saturday. That means colorful foliage. That means maps about where to see colorful foliage. The map above is from I Love NY,... (more)

Local coding or 3-D printing classes for kids?

Tom emails: My 11 year-old son has expressed interest in computer coding (he's been doing some at code.org) and also 3-D printing. He's a very... (more)

Morning Blend

Percoco sentenced + Joe Percoco -- the former top advisor to Andrew Cuomo who was convicted of taking more than $300k in bribes from companies... (more)

Recent Comments

La Mexicana is a treasure. We always buy a few packages of the Chorizo and freeze them (after stopping in for tacos) -Great market and really cool restaurant.

Stuff to do this weekend

...has 3 comments, most recently from Rich

All the current Stewart's seasonal summer ice cream flavors, ranked

...has 7 comments, most recently from Amy Smith

A look around the Maiden House residential + retail conversion in downtown Albany

...has 12 comments, most recently from Peter

Local coding or 3-D printing classes for kids?

...has 3 comments, most recently from Kate

A booming global industry, human blood, and an Albany strip mall

...has 14 comments, most recently from Alton Henson