All Over Albany

A few bits from that Siena poll about the Democratic primary between Andrew Cuomo and Cynthia Nixon

The primaries for state elections are this Thursday. And the big spotlight matchup is, of course, the Democratic primary for governor between Andrew Cuomo and Cynthia Nixon, which has gotten a lot of attention here in the state and nationally because of Nixon's involvement.

But: The Siena poll released Monday morning has Andrew Cuomo leading Cynthia Nixon 63-22 percent for the primary. That's a wider lead than the 60-29 split Siena reported in July.

There's been a lot of buzzing on Twitter today among state politics people about what that says regarding the primary or just about the poll itself -- mainly, that it could be missing the mark. Because it's roughly correct, it would mean Nixon's in line to not do any better against Cuomo than Zephyr Teachout did four years ago despite much greater attention (and Teachout did pretty well in parts of upstate). Whatever happens this week, it should prompt some interesting interesting thinking/study of state politics and media.

Also: Whatever the polls say, you should show up and vote. Primaries tend to have very low turnout, which makes your vote all the more valuable. That could be especially true in a matchup such as the Democratic primary for state Attorney General in which four candidates are competing and the polling has them all pretty close to each other.

Don't know where to vote or what's on your ballot? Check with the website of your county board of election or the state Board of Election.

Here are a few more interesting bits from the poll...

Siena Research Institute says the poll was conducted September 4-7 with 509 "likely" Democratic primary voters. (Margin of error is +/- 4.3 percent.) Here's the breakdown that explains the composition of Siena's sample of likely voters.

It'll be interesting to see how the Siena sample matches up with who actually turns out to vote. The Nixon campaign has said it's been trying to turn out voters who typically don't vote in primaries. And if that happens, the picture could shift.

Right track/wrong track
" Is New York State on the right track, or is it headed in the wrong direction?" -- 59 percent said right track.

Favorable/unfavorable/don't know
Cuomo: 68 / 24 / 8
Nixon: 41 / 33 / 26

Cuomo support
A few maybe surprising things about the support for Cuomo against Nixon in the poll:
+ Cuomo led among people described as having a liberal political view 65-20.
+ Cuomo led among New York City voters 68-18, despite Nixon's focus on the area and issues like the subway.
+ Cuomo led among voters 18-34 by a margin of 59-28.

For the candidate or against?
+ If voting for Cuomo, are you voting more for Cuomo or more against Nixon? 89 percent of Cuomo supporters said more for Cuomo.
+ If voting for Nixon, are you voting more for Nixon or more against Cuomo? 50 percent said more a vote against Cuomo.

Issues
Which candidate do you think will do a better job?
+ Combatting corruption in state government: Nixon 42-39
+ Fixing New York's infrastructure including mass transit as well as roads and bridges: Cuomo 65-21
+ Advancing progressive policies: Cuomo 44-42
+ Improving public education: Cuomo 55-29
+ Creating a tax structure fair for all New Yorkers: Cuomo 54-28

Democratic primary for Attorney General
Don't know/no opinion: 30 percent
Sean Patrick Maloney: 25 percent
Letitia James: 24 percent
Zephyr Teachout: 18 percent
Leecia Eve: 3 percent

Your vote could really make a difference in a primary like that.

Cuomo photo via Cuomo campaign Facebook | Nixon photo via Nixon campaign Facebook