Another day, another poll

cuomo and paladinoA Marist poll out this morning reports that Andrew Cuomo is leading Carl Paladino 52-33 in the race for governor. Rick Lazio registered at nine percent. The poll surveyed "likely voters" and the margin of error is 3.5.

So, to recap this week of conflicting polls:

Quinnipiac: Cuomo leads Paladino 49-43 (out Wednesday)
A poll of likely voters. Rick Lazio not included.

SurveyUSA: Cuomo leads Paladino 49-40 (out Wednesday)
A poll of likely voters. Rick Lazio not included.

Siena: Cuomo leads Paladino 57-24 (out Thursday)
A poll of registered voters. Rick Lazio included (8 percent).

Marist: Cuomo leads Paladino 52-33 (out Friday)
A poll of likely voters. Rick Lazio included (9 percent).

There's been a lot of talk this week about how these polls are put together -- whether Lazio should be included and whether the surveys should be of registered voters or "likely voters." Some experts have argued that it's too early to start sorting people people based on whether they're likely to vote. [FiveThirtyEight] [TU]

Election Day is now 39 days away.

By the way: AOA's completely unscientific "Who would you like to have a beer with?" poll showed Andrew Cuomo up on Carl Paladino 48-43 (Rick Lazio 9 percent). Of course, it should be noted that we didn't include a "none of the above -- please let me drink alone" option.

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I've found that anecdotes from neighbors, friends, or internet "strangers" can only take you so far. If you haven't already, I strongly recommend you get out there and visit these schools during the school year, during the school day to get a feel for things. In the last few months, my wife and I have made a series of visits to our local elementary, middle + high-school. During those visits, we had the chance to talk to multiple teachers and see the kids "in action". It was very VERY telling in a lot of ways - both good and bad.

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