Items tagged with 'NY Governor 2010'
Siena poll: Cuomo crushing Paladino
The Siena poll out today reports that Andrew Cuomo leads Carl Paladino 63-26 among likely voters. That's approaching the territory of Eliot Spitzer's landslide in 2006.
The situation is bad for Paladino no matter how you cut the results. Independents favor Cuomo 61-26. And upstate, where Paladino had to do well to be competitive, Cuomo leads 57-33.
It's not even close on favorability, either: 62 percent say they have a favorable view of Cuomo -- and 69 percent say they have an unfavorable view of Paladino.
Poll results from other statewide races are in the table above. The poll was conducted October 14-18 and screened for likely voters. Margin of error: +/- 3.9.
Earlier on AOA:
+ Gubernatorial debate live blog
+ Gubernatorial beer poll results
Gubernatorial debate live blog
With a slate of candidates that looks more like a reality show cast than a ballot, we figured tonight's debate could be fun to live blog. Of course, there was only one way to find out.
Live blogging after the jump.
Paladino: I don't want children "brainwashed into thinking that homosexuality is an equally valid or successful option"
Speaking in Brooklyn Sunday Carl Paladino said: "... I don't want [children] brainwashed into thinking that homosexuality is an equally valid and successful option -- it isn't."
The speech was recorded by WNYC's Azi Payabarah. The clip is embedded above -- and here's a longer version. Here's the comment in context, which he appeared to be reading from a prepared speech:
I didn't march in a gay pride parade this year. My opponent did. And that's not the example we should be showing our children -- and certainly not in their schools.
And don't misquote me as wanting to hurt homosexual people in any way. That would be a dastardly lie. My approach is live and let live. I just think my children -- and your children -- would be much better off, and much more successful, getting married and raising a family. And I don't want them to be brainwashed into thinking that homosexuality is an equally valid or successful option -- it isn't.
Andrew Cuomo's campaign released a statement in response to Paladino's comments: "Mr. Paladino's statement displays a stunning homophobia and a glaring disregard for basic equality." [NYT]
Paladino was on the Today Show this morning to respond to outrage generated by his Sunday comments. He told Matt Lauer during an interview that he didn't regret his remarks. Here's a clip:
My feelings on homosexuality are unequivocal. I have no problem with it whatsoever. My only reservation is marriage. That's the only reservation I have. I have a lot of homosexuals working in my organization. ...
Young children shouldn't be exposed to this at a young age. They don't understand this. It's a very difficult thing. And exposing them to homosexuality -- especially at a gay pride parade, and I don't know if you've ever been to one, but they wear these little Speedos and they grind against each other, it's just a terrible thing.
Paladino has said he's not a politician. And unlike a politician, he does seem willing to say whatever's on his mind. The problem is... that's what's on his mind.
In a chat with Capital New York today, Azi Paybarah noted that Paladino's propensity to say something stuff like this has actually led to more reporters covering him than Andrew Cuomo recently.
The FiveThirtyEight poling model is currently predicting Cuomo has a 98.9 percent chance of winning the governor's race.
Siena poll: Cuomo still has big lead on Paladino
Sixty-one percent of respondents agreed that Paladino is "a loose cannon who doesn't have the temperament to be governor."
The Siena poll out today reports that Andrew Cuomo leads Carl Paladino 56-32 among likely voters (margin of error +/- 3.9 points). And among independents, Cuomo leads 50-39.
Siena's last poll on the governor's race, in September, reported Cuomo up 57-24 on Paladino (that poll also included the now-dropped out Rick Lazio, and it was of registered voters). So, in some sense Paladino has picked up a bit of ground. But he's bumping up against this political problem:
+ 59 percent of respondents in this new poll say they have an unfavorable opinion of Paladino
+ 61 percent agreed that he's "a loose cannon who doesn't have the temperament to be governor." (Yep, this poll was conducted after the Bolton Landing Brouhaha.)
+ Cuomo also has a wide lead when voters were asked which candidate would do better on a range of issues (except taxes).
FiveThirtyEight's prediction model currently has Cuomo with a 97.8 percent chance of winning (the model doesn't include today's Siena poll).
"Cloud Cuckooland"
The story (legend?) of Carl Paladino got even stranger this week when he told the Syracuse Post-Standard that he helped defuse a hostage situation at Syracuse University while he was a law student there in 1970. It's a great story... except for the fact that other people -- and archived press clips -- say it didn't happen (emphasis added):
Carl and Fred meet cute
Because, well... just because...
The Atlantic created this video to reproduce the confrontation in "a format where Paladino's and Dicker's terms are clearer and easier to understand."
Paladino vs. Dicker, the Bolton Landing brouhaha
Here's the video of that altercation between Carl Paladino and the New York Post's Fred Dicker yesterday in Bolton Landing. It was shot by YNN's Kaitlyn Ross with her mobile. [State of Politics]
Dicker was pressing Paldino for evidence to back up the allegation Paladino had made earlier, in an interview with Politico, that Andrew Cuomo had had an affair back when he was married to Kerry Kennedy. Paladino tells Dicker that he does have evidence and "you'll get it at the appropriate time." Paladino then accuses Dicker of working for Cuomo. And then he tells Dicker, "If you send another goon to my daughter's house, I'll take you out." (Paladino's campaign alleged the Post had sent photographers after Paladino's 10-year-old daughter -- the child from his affair.)
Probably the best line from the schoolyard fight came from Paladino campaign manager Michael Caputo, to Dicker: "You're off the Christmas list!" Dicker now joins Joy Behar on said list. [State of Politics]
The Cuomo campaign's response to Paladino's accusation: "We have not and will not descend into the gutter with Paladino, Caputo and [Roger] Stone. We're not going to start now because the people of New York deserve a better dialogue from their candidates and journalists." [NYDN]
There's better quality video of the spat from CBS6 embedded after the jump.
Lazio out
Rick Lazio announced today that he's dropping out of the race for governor. Even though he had lost the Republican primary, he still had a spot on the Conservative line. [State of Politics YouTube]
Said Lazio: "While my heart beckons me forward, my head tells me that my continued presence on the Conservative line would simply lead to the election Andrew Cuomo..."
Not that Lazio's a fan of Paladino. He went on to criticize both candidates -- and many of the shots were aimed right at Paladino.
I look at the two major party candidates and I see flawed individuals -- flawed in terms of public character, flawed in terms of commitment to ideas and principles that will restore restore growth and pride to our great state ... I 'll be watching very closely to see if either candidate can prove to me -- and to New York -- that they can rise above the empty slogans and the name calling. ...
I strongly believe that Andrew Cuomo can not bring about change. But I remain unconvinced that Carl Paladino will bring the improvement that New Yorkers need, deserve and want.
The people deserve a civil campaign and a vibrant exchange on the challenges real New Yorkers face. They deserve leaders who are good, decent, responsible people who will put citizens first. They deserve real results from public servants who are accountable for what they say, how they say it, what they don't say and what they truly deliver.
As it happens, getting Lazio off the ballot isn't as simple him saying, "Thanks, you've all been wonderful, I'm out" -- and it looks like he'll be nominated for a state Supreme Court judgeship in order to complete the maneuver. [Daily Politics]
Lazio's exit should clear up the polling picture a bit. The polls from last week that included Lazio had him at 8 and 9 percent. That's not much -- but if Cuomo and Paladino are close, it could have made a difference.
Earlier on AOA: Rick Lazio finished as just a shot glass in AOA gubernatorial beer poll
Another day, another poll
A Marist poll out this morning reports that Andrew Cuomo is leading Carl Paladino 52-33 in the race for governor. Rick Lazio registered at nine percent. The poll surveyed "likely voters" and the margin of error is 3.5.
So, to recap this week of conflicting polls:
Quinnipiac: Cuomo leads Paladino 49-43 (out Wednesday)
A poll of likely voters. Rick Lazio not included.
SurveyUSA: Cuomo leads Paladino 49-40 (out Wednesday)
A poll of likely voters. Rick Lazio not included.
Siena: Cuomo leads Paladino 57-24 (out Thursday)
A poll of registered voters. Rick Lazio included (8 percent).
Marist: Cuomo leads Paladino 52-33 (out Friday)
A poll of likely voters. Rick Lazio included (9 percent).
There's been a lot of talk this week about how these polls are put together -- whether Lazio should be included and whether the surveys should be of registered voters or "likely voters." Some experts have argued that it's too early to start sorting people people based on whether they're likely to vote. [FiveThirtyEight] [TU]
Election Day is now 39 days away.
By the way: AOA's completely unscientific "Who would you like to have a beer with?" poll showed Andrew Cuomo up on Carl Paladino 48-43 (Rick Lazio 9 percent). Of course, it should be noted that we didn't include a "none of the above -- please let me drink alone" option.
Gubernatorial beer poll results
Poor Rick Lazio -- his pint looks like a shot glass.
Yesterday Jeff suggested that we poll people on which of the major gubernatorial candidates they would most like to have a beer with. The utterly unscientific results are above (as of about 4:30 pm Thursday). More than 200 people voted.
It looks like a tight race to the bar. And you never know what's going to happen in a race that close. (Will one of the candidates buy? Come on, Carl! You're worth $150 million!)
This could be (probably is) coincidental, but the beer poll results actually match up pretty well with this week's Q Poll that showed Paladino trailing Cuomo, 49-43.
Earlier on AOA:
+ Siena poll: Cuomo still has a big lead
+ Cuomo vs. Paladino -- stop the landslide?
Fine print: This is a completely unscientific poll. Results have been rounded. Margin of error? Depends on how much you drink.
Siena poll: Cuomo still has a big lead
The Siena poll out this morning reports that Andrew Cuomo leads Carl Paladino 57-24 in the race for governor (margin of error +/- 3.5). And Rick Lazio registers at... eight.
So, that's quite a different result from yesterday's Quinnipiac poll that reported Cuomo was ahead by just six points. And a Survey USA poll also out yesterday reported Cuomo was ahead by nine points.
There are a few differences between the Siena poll and the other two. First, Siena included Rick Lazio and the others did not. And the Siena poll surveyed registered voters, while the others surveyed "likely" voters.
Polling data uber-nerd Nate Silver examined the likely voter issue after Wendnesday's surprising Q Poll result. Likely voter models tend to favor Republicans a bit. But after talking with people at Quinnipiac, Silver concluded it probably doesn't explain Paladino's surge in the poll.
So... who knows where things are at right now. There are still 40 days before Election Day, which is plenty of time for the situation to change. Let's hope for a debate or two. Or at least a more interesting exchange between the candidates than a Photoshop competition.
A few other bits from the Siena poll
+ Chuck Schumer leads Jay Townsend 64-30.
+ Kirsten Gillibrand leads Joe DioGuardi 57-31 (though, that Survey USA poll only had her up 45-44)
+ No one knows who's running for attorney general. Both candidates -- Eric Schneiderman and Dan Donovan -- have don't know/no opinion scores over 60. The same thing goes for the comptroller matchup between Tom DiNapoli and Harry Wilson.
Drinking with Andrew and Carl
The key to electoral success?
After today's post about the seemingly-narrowing race for governor between Andrew Cuomo and Carl Paladino, Jeff suggested we do our own one-question poll.
The question: which candidate would your rather have a beer with? We're pretty sure we know what Jeff is getting at here (you probably do, too -- more after the jump), so let's go with it. And just to mix it up, we'll add Rick Lazio into the mix.
Push all the stuff about parties and policies and platforms to the side -- just on the basis of personality alone -- who would you rather have a drink with?
We'll post results of this completely un-scientific poll at the end of Thursday.
Cuomo vs. Paladino -- stop the landslide?
For what seems like forever now, the conventional wisdom has been that Andrew Cuomo will cruise to an easy win in the race for governor. And the poll data backed up this view.
Until now. (With a caveat.)
A Quinnipiac poll out today of likely voters reports that Cuomo leads Carl Paladino by just 6 points, 49-43 (margin of error 3.6). And Paladino leads Cuomo among independents, 49-43.
These results are quite a contrast to other poll results. A Rasmussen poll out earlier this week reported Cuomo was up 54-38. And in mid-August, the Siena poll reported that Cuomo was ahead of both Lazio and Paladino by more than 30 points in hypothetical matchups.
It's not surprising that Paladino has gotten a bump after all the attention from winning the Republican primary -- there were people who probably didn't know, or only vaguely knew, who he was before that.
But here's the caveat to today's Q poll: it doesn't include Rick Lazio (nor did the Rasmussen poll). And, so far at least, Lazio is still in the race on the Conservative Party line. And if he stays in, you gotta think he's going to draw votes that would otherwise go to Paladino.
Political stat nerd Nate Silver tweeted today that leaving Lazio out of the poll was "pretty clearly wrong." As of yesterday, Silver's model was forecasting Cuomo had an almost 97 percent chance of winning the governorship. But the model has its own caveats -- among them, it was based on the mid-August Siena poll.
So take all these numbers with a grain or two of salt. There are 41 more days until Election Day.
Cuomo photo: Cuomo campaign Facebook | Paladino photo: Paladino campaign Facebook
Paladino wins Republican nomination for governor, and other primary results
Carl Paladino beat Rick Lazio in the Republican primary for governor -- and it wasn't even close. He was ahead by a 2-1 margin when the AP called the race last night. [AP] [NYDN]
Embedded above is a clip from Paladino's post-primary speech, posted by State of Politics (here's part two). Here's transcript clip:
They say I'm too blunt. Well I am, and I don't apologize for it.
They say I'm an angry man. And that's true! We're all angry - not just because we woke up on the wrong side of the bed. We're angry about paying the highest income taxes and property taxes in the nation and getting less and less for it. We're angry about our incompetent, dysfunctional government that pays no attention to the desires of the people. We're angry about the cesspool of corruption and conflicts of interest and self-dealing that's the Albany of today.
But here's what my critics, what they don't quite understand: I know there is a way to bring opportunity and economic growth back to new york state. And you're coming with me and we're going to do it. And I believe we can.
We're New Yorkers and we're Americans - we can do anything we set our minds to. Those who say that New York's brightest days are behind us - those who say our our state is so broken it can't be fixed - those that say nothing can be done to rebuild New York - they're dead wrong!
You see, I believe our brightest days are ahead of us.
A Siena poll from mid-August had Paladino trailing Andrew Cuomo by a wide margin in a hypothetical general election match-up for governor. That poll also reported that Lazio was leading Paladino for the nomination.
Earlier on AOA: Who is Carl Paladino?
Other notable primary results
+ State senator Eric Schneiderman edged out Kathleen Rice in the Democratic primary for attorney general. He'll face Republican Dan Donovan in the general election. [Bloomberg]
+ Former Congressman Joe DioGuardi won the Republican primary for US Senate and will face Kirsten Gillibrand. Jay Townsend won the other Republican primary for US Senate and will face Chuck Schumer. [NYT] [AP]
+ Incumbent Neil Breslin fought off a challenge from Luke Martland in the Democratic primary for the 46th state Senate seat (the district that covers Albany County). He'll face Republican Bob Domenici, and Michael Carey -- who's running on an independent line. [TU] [TU Local Politics]
+ State senate majority leader Pedro Espada was defeated by Gustavo Rivera in the Democratic primary for the 33rd state Senate seat (the Bronx). Rivera is a former Kirsten Gillibrand staffer. Though, as one voter told NYT: "The best thing about him is that his last name isn't Espada." [NYDN] [NYT]
Cuomo crushing
Things are looking pretty good for Andrew Cuomo -- and pretty bad for Rick Lazio.
Cuomo's campaign reported yesterday that it has $23.6 million in cash on hand. Lazio's campaign? Almost $689k. Yep, that's thousand.
And in the Siena poll out this week, Cuomo was ahead of Lazio 60-28 in a hypothetical gubernatorial matchup. (Carl Paladino, who's trying to get on the ballot to challenge Lazio in a Republican primary, doesn't fare any better -- he loses 64-23 against Cuomo.)
With a lead like that, we might take an RV campaign vacation, too.
campaign finance totals via the NYS Board of Elections
Speed reading the coverage of Andrew Cuomo's campaign announcement
Gubernatorial candidate.
Andrew Cuomo has publicly declared that he's running for governor (finally).
Here are a bunch of the quick scan highlights from the coverage, including bits about Cuomo's plan, his apparent cold shoulder toward Sheldon Silver, being an insider-outsider-upsidedownsider and Sandra Lee.
Andrew Cuomo announces for governor
Andrew Cuomo officially announced that he's running for governor Saturday with a video posted on his website:
From the video message:
Our state government in Albany is disreputable and discredited.
New York State is upside down and backwards; high taxes and low performance. The New York State government was at one time a national model. Now, unfortunately, it's a national disgrace. Sometimes, the corruption in Albany could even make Boss Tweed blush.
In my opinion, politicians of both parties, Democrats and Republicans, share the blame. Both are guilty of playing partisan politics and bringing New York State to the brink.
Because I believe so deeply in the mission of government, I am so troubled by its failure. The Declaration of Independence says when government fails, the people have the right to replace it. Well, New York State government has failed and the people have the right, indeed the people have the the people have the obligation, to act.
Later on in the message, he says: "We want to know how the candidates for the State legislature are going to vote on key issues and we want to know now. Let's make this a litmus test for change."
Here's a transcript of the video. The text is also embedded after the jump.
Cuomo's campaign has posted an issues agenda. Among the main points:
Yes, usher in the golden age of semi-homemade dinner parties
From a NYT profile of the relationship between Andrew Cuomo and Food Network star Sandra Lee:
In Albany, which is not known for its cuisine or its social scene, the most anticipated question about Ms. Lee is whether she will move into the governor's mansion and usher in a golden age of dinner parties and cocktail hours. (Ms. Lee creates a new drink for nearly every episode of her show. Her Christmas concoction: a Gingerbread Martini, made with ginger beer, hazelnut-flavored liqueur and butterscotch schnapps.)
As Joshua David Stern notes at Eater, Lee does enjoy a cocktail -- and, when armed with a can of Pam, could have quite the effect on Albany.
The Cuomo-Lee relationship also sets up an interesting possible situation: that the governor of New York's significant other could be both richer and more famous than he is.
By the way: Cuomo is expected to maybe/probably/oh-who-really-knows officially declare that he's running for governor next week. [Bloomberg]
Earlier on AOA: New York's next First Lady-friend?
photo: Food Network
Carl Paladino is one of those people who won't stop forwarding crap
WNY Media -- a news site in the Buffalo area -- has posted on a bunch of emails reportedly sent by Carl Paladino (the site seems to be getting slammed with traffic right now). Many of the messages are forwards. And they contain some nasty stuff: racist jokes, a woman and a horse, uh, you know. "Dramatically unsafe for work" is the way WNY Media describes them.
Paladino's campaign has released a statement responding to the emails. A snip, via Daily Politics:
Carl Paladino has forwarded close friends hundreds of email messages he received. Many of these emails he received were off color, some were politically incorrect, few represented his own opinion, and almost none of them were worth remembering.
Earlier on AOA: Who is Carl Paladino?
"I'm as mad as hell!"
With Carl Paladino seemingly basing his campaign for governor on this clip from Network, we figured it would make for interesting viewing this morning.
It should be noted that Network is a dark satire and the Howard Beale character (the one who yells "I'm as mad as hell! I'm not going to take this anymore!") is literally crazy.
By the way: If you haven't seen Network, you should definitely watch it. It's a fantastic film. It won four Oscars.
Also: After the jump, Warren Redlich's video on why he's not qualified for higher office. The Guilderland resident has set up a long-shot bid for governor.
Earlier on AOA: Who is Carl Paladino?
Who is Carl Paladino?
Update September 15: Paladino has won the Republican nomination for governor.
____
From April 12: Carl Paladino is one of those people who won't stop forwarding crap
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Carl Paladino is expected to toss his hat in the ring for governor of New York today.
When talking about Paladino, though, "toss" is probably not the right word -- "jam" or "shove" might be more fitting.
Mayor says Albany faces "financial tsunami," ESP man caver gets a year in jail, Skidmore moves into new Zankel Center
During his state of the city speech last night, Jerry Jennings said Albany is facing the possibility of a "a financial tsunami" in 2011. The mayor said the city will be bringing in outside financial consultants to help develop a plan. He also continued his call for "appropriate equitable state aid" to the city. [WTEN] [TU] [CapNews9]
The janitor who pleaded guilty in the ESP Man Cave case was sentenced to a year in jail and scolded for bringing "contempt and ridicule" on state workers. [CapNews9] [TU]
Parts of the Cannon Building on Monument Square in Troy have re-opened after the building inspectors shut it down for code violations. Harry Tutunjian tweeted yesterday that the building is still without water. [TU] [@TroyMayor]
The new president of the Schenectady city council is calling for voters to dump the city's school board members in the spring elections. [TU]
New York's next First Lady-friend?
Page Six Mag had a piece this past weekend on the relationship between Andrew Cuomo and his ladyfriend, Food Network star Sandra Lee. Apparently it's all rides on the Harley, watching Ice Road Truckers on the couch and eating lasagna made with canned tomato soup.
Cuomo and Lee haven't said much publicly about their relationship. But it does come up. Lee recently said on a talk show that she would cook in the Governor's Mansion (and bring "great garnishes"). She's said Cuomo is "the most amazing person I've ever met in every way" and referred to his kids as her "weekend daughters."
And the two do sometimes appear together at events together. From Anthony Bourdain's blog post about his encounter with Lee and Cuomo at the Julie & Julia premiere:
... said KGB about Drawing: What's something that brought you joy this year?