All Over Albany

A few bits about how New York State's population is changing

This is map of change in state population between 2010 and 2018 due to domestic migration, by percent. Red represents increase, blue decrease. (Is there a clickable map inside? Do you even have to ask?)

You probably saw the headlines this week about how New York State led the nation in population loss between 2017 and 2018, according to new Census Bureau estimates.

Here are a few bits to fill out the picture:

+ New York is estimated to have had 19,542,209 people as of July 1, 2018.

+ Between 2017 and 2018 it's estimated to have lost 48,510 people. That's 0.2 percent of the state's population. The total number is highest in the nation. By percent of state population, it's the fourth highest.

+ New York's population is estimated to be up between 2010 and 2018 by roughly 164,000 people. Compared to the rest of the states, that's about middle of the pack by total number and near the bottom by percentage (#43).

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Future jobs, done by humans and not

Roughly half of the jobs in New York State could be automated or otherwise significantly changed by artificial intelligence over the next 20 years. That's from an ongoing look at the issue by the Rockefeller Institute of Government here in Albany. From a post by Rockefeller's Laura Shultz:

The calculation is based on individual occupations. A recent paper by Frey and Osbourne estimated the probability of computerization of more than 700 jobs in the near future based on the tasks associated with the job and currently available technologies.[1] A high probability of computerization suggests technologies could eliminate or dramatically change the tasks associated with the job in the next twenty years. We combined these data with the occupational makeup of the New York State workforce in 2017 and found that 53 percent of jobs in New York could be automated with technology available today or anticipated in the near future, while 56 percent of workers across the US face threats from automation.[2]

Rockefeller has put together an interactive graphic that highlights the number of jobs -- by industry and type -- that could be affected around the state. (That image above is a static version of the graphic.) At the top of the list are office support, retail salespeople and cashiers, and food service -- potentially 2.5 million jobs lost or changed.

This struck us as a key clip from Shultz's post (emphasis added):

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Election 2018: Two maps and three charts

You might have heard that there are a lot of votes around New York City.

A few more bits from Election Day 2018 -- about the geographical split in the gubernatorial election, voter turnout, and the unofficial popularity contest.

In (clickable) map and chart form, of course.

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Quick-scan general election results 2018

Here's a quick scan of results from elections for the US Senate, Capital Region US House seats, statewide offices, and Capital Region state legislature seats (and a couple other elections).

This is not a comprehensive list, just some highlights. Numbers are unofficial, and there are bound to be some changes on Wednesday.

On with the results...

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New York is one of just a handful of states that still don't allow early voting

Electoral fact of the day: New York is one of only 13 states that do not have some form of early voting. [NCSL]

Given that early voting makes it easier to vote and is popular in many other states, Common Cause New York's Susan Lerner told the New York Times its absence here is "an embarrassment." [Brennan Center] [NYT]

Back in February a Siena poll asked people in the state about early voting. Two-thirds of respondents said they supported it. Though there was a partisan split on the issue: 81 percent of Democrats said they supported it, but just 48 percent of Republicans. Among Independents, 64 percent supported it.

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The ruling when it comes to the cash vs. credit card price: There should be no math

New York is one of 11 states that technically prohibits retailers from charging customers a surcharge for using a credit card when making a purchase. But the state's law allows merchants to give people a discount for using cash instead of a card. So, in the end, you can still be charged more for using a card.

The question of how to describe the credit card versus cash price in New York has been working its way through courts for the last few years, and even circulated through the Supreme Court of the United States at one point.

A group of businesses had filed a lawsuit seeking to affirm their right to tell customers, for example, "a haircut costs $10.00, and if you pay with a credit card you will pay 3% extra." The Court of Appeals, New York's highest court, ruled this week that's not allowed. From the majority opinion:

... [W]e conclude that a merchant complies with [this provision of the state's general business law] if and only if the merchant posts the total dollars-and-cents price charged to credit card users. In that circumstance, consumers see the highest possible price they must pay for credit card use and the legislative concerns about luring or misleading customers by use of a low price available only for cash purchases are alleviated. To be clear, plaintiffs' proposed single-sticker pricing scheme - which does not express the total dollars-and-cents credit card price and instead requires consumers to engage in an arithmetical calculation, in order to figure it out - is prohibited by the statute.

In other words, the price listing can't be something like "$10 (+ 3% when using a card)." It must be something like "$10 / $10.30 when using a card."

Over at the New York Law Journal, Dan Clark has more context for the case and highlights one of the judges' dissents over the it's-a-surcharge/it's-a-discount issue.

Earlier: New York State and credit card "checkout fees" (2013)

Clickable maps of county-by-county results for the Cuomo-Nixon Democratic primary, and state attorney general

Andrew Cuomo won by a wide margin overall in the Democratic primary, but as in 2014, he didn't fare well in the greater Capital Region.

For easy scanning and discussion: We've rolled together a few clickable maps based on the results of the Democratic primaries Thursday, including Andrew Cuomo's win over Cynthia Nixon in the gubernatorial primary and the crowded race for state Attorney General.

And here are those maps, along with a few notes...

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Quick-scan 2018 Democratic primary results for New York governor, lieutenant governor, and state attorney general

We rolled together a few maps and notes for these primaries.
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Updated
Andrew Cuomo has won the Democratic primary for governor over Cynthia Nixon.

With roughly 90 percent of election districts reporting, Cuomo was ahead 64-34, a lead of more than 400,000 votes.

Lieutenant governor
Incumbent Kathy Hochul appears to be headed for victory over challenger Jumaane Williams by a margin of just 48-43.

State attorney general
Tish James is headed for victory in the four-way Democratic primary for state attorney general, with 39 percent of the votes. Zephyr Teachout was in second place (29%).

A few bits from that Siena poll about the Democratic primary between Andrew Cuomo and Cynthia Nixon

The primaries for state elections are this Thursday. And the big spotlight matchup is, of course, the Democratic primary for governor between Andrew Cuomo and Cynthia Nixon, which has gotten a lot of attention here in the state and nationally because of Nixon's involvement.

But: The Siena poll released Monday morning has Andrew Cuomo leading Cynthia Nixon 63-22 percent for the primary. That's a wider lead than the 60-29 split Siena reported in July.

There's been a lot of buzzing on Twitter today among state politics people about what that says regarding the primary or just about the poll itself -- mainly, that it could be missing the mark. Because it's roughly correct, it would mean Nixon's in line to not do any better against Cuomo than Zephyr Teachout did four years ago despite much greater attention (and Teachout did pretty well in parts of upstate). Whatever happens this week, it should prompt some interesting interesting thinking/study of state politics and media.

Also: Whatever the polls say, you should show up and vote. Primaries tend to have very low turnout, which makes your vote all the more valuable. That could be especially true in a matchup such as the Democratic primary for state Attorney General in which four candidates are competing and the polling has them all pretty close to each other.

Don't know where to vote or what's on your ballot? Check with the website of your county board of election or the state Board of Election.

Here are a few more interesting bits from the poll...

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There's a new type of tick in New York State

There's a new type of tick in New York, the state Department of Health announced Tuesday: Haemaphysalis longicornis -- the "longhorned tick." DOH says it was found in multiple locations in Westchester County. From the press release:

While the longhorned tick has transmitted disease to humans in other parts of the world, more research is needed to determine whether this can happen in the United States. Regardless, New Yorkers should continue to take steps to protect themselves, their children and their pets against ticks and tickborne diseases that are present in New York State.

This tick is also a concern for the New York State agricultural industry and may pose a threat to livestock. Farmers should continue to work with their veterinarians to check their animals, particularly cattle, sheep and horses, for exposure to ticks and to ensure their parasite control plans are up to date and working. Symptoms of tick-borne disease in cattle include fever, lack of appetite, dehydration, weakness and labored breathing.

That photo on the right compares deer ticks (top) and longhorned ticks (bottom) with poppy seeds (middle) for scale. (Click on the photo for a larger version -- we figured no one needed to see that up close unless they wanted to.)

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Scanning that New York State Department of Health report that argues the case for legalizing recreational marijuana

photo: Ryan Bushby via Wikipedia (CC BY 2.5)

The New York State Department of Health released its report on regulated marijuana Friday -- and it argues for legalizing recreational marijuana. Here's a chunk for the report that largely sums up the argument:

The positive effects of regulating an adult (21 and over) marijuana market in NYS outweigh the potential negative impacts. Harm reduction principles can and should be incorporated into a regulated marijuana program to help ensure consumer and industry safety. Legalizing marijuana could remove research restrictions in NYS, which will enable the State to add to the knowledge of both the benefits and risks. In addition, NYS would be one of the largest regulated marijuana markets. As such, there is potential for substantial tax revenue in NYS, which can be used to help support program initiatives in areas such as public health, education, transportation, research, law enforcement and workforce development. Tax revenues can also support health care and employment. Finally, legalization of marijuana will address an important social justice issue by reducing disproportionate criminalization and incarceration of certain racial and ethnic minority communities.

Whatever the political machinations at work surrounding this report, it is a remarkable document. Pretty much anyone over the age of, say, 20, has grown up with government/law enforcement/schools warning against the dangers of pot. And in this report the state Department of Health essentially says, yeah, pot has some downsides, but they're probably not as bad as they've been made out to be and our society would be better off it we made it legal and kept an eye on it.

Anyway, we read through the report and pulled out handful of highlights -- about potential benefits, opioids, mental health, criminal justice, and tax revenue -- for easy skimming...

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Beer (and cider) ice cream is now legal to be sold in New York

Wine ice creams, like this one, have been allowed to be sold for the past decade.

Noted: Beer and hard cider ice creams are now legal to be sold in New York State.

The state has allowed wine ice cream for the past 10 years, and this week the governor signed a bill that also allows for beer and cider ice cream or other frozen desserts. From the memo for the bill, which was sponsored by James Seward in the Senate and William Magee in the Assembly:

Ice cream made with wine is a food product manufactured in New York State that has been safely sold and regulated in a manner similar to confectionary that contains alcohol since 2008. This bill seeks to approve similar products made with beer and hard cider. As with wine, this bill would, limit the percentage of alcohol in ice cream to not more than 5% of alcohol by volume, prohibit its sale to persons under twenty-one years of age and require the same product labeling and warning statements similar to wine and confectionary that contains alcohol. This bill will help New York dairy farmers, craft beer and cider producers, dairy processors and manufacturers, and food retailers and restaurants meet the increasing consumer demand for these new and innovative products.

Five percent alcohol by volume is right around the alcohol content of many beers.

To go along with the beer and hard cider ice cream bill, the governor also signed another bill this week that allows wine frozen desserts to be sold in packages of less than one pint. (The original intent of the minimum package size was an effort to keep the products away from kids.) From the bill memo: "The sale of wine ice cream was enacted into law in 2008. Since that time, the demand for smaller packaging for weddings, fundraisers, recreational tours and other events has increased. This bill would lift the minimum requirements that are currently in law to accommodate this demand for smaller packaging sizes."

Both bills take effect immediately.

Earlier: Here's a map of every brewery in New York State

New York continues to produce more and more maple syrup

New York State produced more than 800,000 gallons of maple syrup during this year's season. That's the highest total in 74 years, according to the Cuomo admin.

The Empire State was able to hold off Maine (539,000 gallons) for the #2 spot. Vermont continues to look across the border and congratulate New York on its hobby -- the Green Mountain State produced 1.94 million gallons last year. (But its production has more or less than been flat the last few years and New York is gaining...)

Here's the national production table from the USDA (pdf p. 9). And we rolled together a tree map of the numbers. (It's kind of like a square pie chart.)

The maple syrup production of both Vermont and New York State has been on an upswing since the start of this century. And in just the past five years their running three-year averages are up 50 percent.

One of the reasons: There have been major shifts in technology, as producers have switched over to use miles of tubing and vacuums to collect sap, and then reverse osmosis to remove some of the water before boiling.

Here's an interesting Washington Post article from this past spring about the way the industry is changing, and how the growth is attracting the interest of private equity and companies looking to scale.

Maybe the biggest question, though: Is New York's pancake industry ready to step up to the challenge?

New York's moving closer to marijuana legalization -- thinking about what could that mean for local communities

David Soares at Wednesday's meeting in Arbor Hill.

It would not be surprising for New York State to legalize recreational marijuana sometime during the next few years.

Massachusetts will start legal sales of recreational pot this July. That same month in Vermont it will become legal to have and grow small amounts of marijuana. Legalization had majority support among respondents to a Siena New York State poll earlier this year. Cynthia Nixon's made it a plank of her gubernatorial campaign. And Andrew Cuomo, who has been against legalization, ordered the state Department of Health to study it.

If/when legalization happens, there will be a lot of things to sort out -- not just details about how pot will be sold and taxed, but also how to deal with the significant ethical and legal issues that rise from legalizing a product that's been the subject of so much law enforcement and crime for decades.

So how do people want that future to play out? And what can be done in the interim?

Those were some of the questions at the heart of a community discussion with Albany County District Attorney David Soares in Albany this week.

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Another push to get e-bikes up the hill to legalization in New York State

One of Jump's bike share e-bikes.

E-bikes hold the potential to stretch the use of bikes in all sorts of interesting ways, but they're not currently legal in New York State.

There's a push to change that, and advocates are pedaling hard to make it up the hill before the state legislature ends its current session later this month.

On Wednesday reps from the company behind the bike share operated by CDTA were in town to argue the case for e-bikes along with a handful of state and local leaders. The pitch: e-bikes can be a new way for people to commute, they'll open tourism opportunities, and they'll expand the pool of people who ride bikes.

So here are a few bits about how e-bikes might work with bike share in the Capital Region, and a check-in on where things are at in the state legislature...

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Here's how much it snowed in various places all around New York State this winter

There's a clickable map, too. (Because of course there is.)

May starts this week, so that probably means we're finished with snow for the season. Though April apparently decided to get a few more flakes in before exiting.

So to bid a final farewell to this past winter, here's a clickable map of snow totals from around New York State for the season. Some of them are bonkers.

By the way: Wednesday and Thursday this week both have forecasted highs in the 80s.

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An end for plastic shopping bags in New York?

Paper or... reusable?

On Monday the Cuomo admin floated a bill that would ban many kinds of plastic shopping bags starting at the beginning of 2019. Bill language blurbage:

This prohibition does not apply to (i) a reusable bag that is not made of film plastic or a compostable bag; (ii) a plastic bag used solely to contain or wrap uncooked meat, fish, or poultry; (iii) a plastic bag used by a customer solely to package bulk items, such as fruits, vegetables, nuts, grains, or candy; (iv) a plastic bag used solely to contain food sliced to order; (v) a plastic bag used solely to contain a newspaper for delivery to a subscriber; (vi) plastic bags sold in bulk; (vii) a plastic bag prepackaged for sale to a customer including, but not limited to, a trash bag and a food storage bag; (viii) a plastic garment bag; (ix) a plastic bag provided by a restaurant, tavern or similar establishment to carry out or deliver food; or (x) any other bag exempted by the department in regulations.

The bill would also make the state the sole jurisdiction for regulating the use of plastic bags. There are currently a handful of municipalities around the state already with laws on the books. (And the state already requires larger retailer to collect plastic bags for recycling.)

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Here's a map of every brewery in New York State

Great Flats Brewing in Schenectady is one of the many new farm breweries around the state.

As of mid February of this year New York State had 400 breweries, the Cuomo admin announced this month. That's said to be a new record for the number of individual breweries in the state, surpassing the former high count of 393 in 1876.

When that announcement arrived, we put together a map of the 46 breweries in the greater Capital Region.

People seemed to like that, so we figured, hey, why not just roll together a clickable map of all 400 breweries around the state?

So we did. And here it is.

(Also: A quick run though some New York State brewing history.)

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There are now 400 breweries in New York State

Fort Orange Brewing, which opened in Albany last October, is one of the 400.

Bonus: We've added a map of the Capital Region breweries.

New York State now has more breweries than at any other point in history, the Cuomo admin reported Wednesday.

There are 400 breweries operating in the Empire State. The previous high count was 393 in 1876.

The Cuomo admin points out there have been 243 new breweries licensed since 2012, and 202 of them have gotten the OK to operate under the relatively new farm brewery license that took effect at the start of 2013. That license relaxes a bunch of rules for breweries if they use a certain percentage of ingredients grown in state. (There's also a farm winery license that dates back to the 1970s, as well as more recent farm distillery and farm cidery licenses.)

It's probably true that New York is also riding the general rising tide of craft beer over the last decade or so. Example: In 2016 overall production of beer in the United State was flat, but craft beer production was up more than 6 percent and grew to more than 12 percent all beer produced in the US.

Here's the whole list of breweries, which includes 46 in the (greater) Capital Region....

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All the other sunsets

Because we're on a spinning oblate spheroid revolving around a distant light source...

Check out this sunrise/sunset chart the state Department of Environmental Conversation posted on Twitter this week. (DEC shared the chart as part of a reminder to hunters about sunrise-sundown rules for shooting.)

It's like seeing New York State sliced into a bunch of time zones.

Earlier: When the sun goes down

The earth beneath our feet

Friday afternoon geology*: Check out this US Geological Survey map showing the topography and geology of New York State and nearby areas. We clipped this section from a national map -- see that link above -- which is really worth a look.

The map colors correspond to the age of the rock. The purple area dates back to about 400some million years ago. The pink dates back to around 500some million.

And then there are the Adirondacks, which (literally) just stick out. So we looked up a little bit about their geology. From an Adirondack Park Agency explainer:

The Adirondack Mountains are very different in shape and content from other mountain systems. Unlike elongated ranges like the Rockies and the Appalachians, the Adirondacks form a circular dome, 160 miles wide and 1 mile high. Although the Dome as we know it today is a relatively recent development, having emerged about 5 million years ago, it is made of ancient rocks more than a 1,000 million years old. Hence, the Adirondacks are "new mountains from old rocks."

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*What, when is your day and time for thinking about geology?

[via Kottke]

A chance to hear two sides of the debate over whether there should be a state constitutional convention

The November general election here in New York State will include a ballot question about whether there should be a state constitutional convention. (The question is required to come up every 20 years.) If a majority of people vote in favor of a convention, it will kick off a process that could reshape the state's constitution.

Maybe you've heard a bit about it. Maybe you've seen the yard signs. Maybe -- if you're like most people, we suspect -- you have only a vague sense of the arguments for and against it.

Next Monday, October 30, there's a public forum at the Albany Public Library Washington Ave branch to showcase the pro and con ConCon viewpoints. Erika Lorshbough -- legislative counsel for the New York Civil Liberties Union, which is very much against a convention -- will present the con side. Laura Bierman -- executive director of the League of Women Voters of New York State, which supports the idea -- will present the pro side.

The event starts at 6 pm. It's free.

Juice for electric vehicle sales

The number of electric vehicles sold in New York took a big percentage jump during the first half of this year, according to the Cuomo admin. Sales were up 61 percent from January to June 2017 compared to the same period in 2016.

The administration attributes to the jump to the new electric vehicle rebate the state started offering this spring. New York State is now offering up to $2,000 for qualifying vehicles, bringing the total potential federal and state rebate to $7,500. The Cuomo admin points to a sharp uptick in sales this year after the rebate started (sales January to March were up 44 percent compared to 2016, and up 74 percent April to June.)

The total number of electric vehicles sold in New York State during the first half of this year: 4,209. And through the end of August, there have been 2,332 "Drive Clean Rebate" applications submitted.

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New York State city and town populations 2016

The Capital Region has some of the state's fastest growing towns in terms of population percentage change.

That's one of the bits from new population estimates for cities and towns released by the Census Bureau this week.

Is there a clickable map? You know that there is.

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Life expectancy in New York State by county

New York counties by estimated life expectancy. Green is roughly the state average -- yellow below, blue above. (There are two clickable maps after the jump.)

Life expectancy at birth was a little more than 80.36 years in New York State in 2014, according to a new study out this week.

That was good for 6th best in the nation. And it's up 73.19 years in 1980.

Those estimates are from a study published in JAMA Internal Medicine this week looking at how life expectancy varies across counties in United States. And as the researchers reported, there was wide variation -- some 20 years of difference between the high and low ends.

Here's a good interactive map of the numbers. And here are a few articles in the popular press about the overall study -- at FiveThirtyEight and The Atlantic.

New York counties didn't exhibit such a wide range, but there were some differences.

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